Publications
Energy systems are complex. Implications for science and for policy PhD Thesis
Felice, Louisa Jane Di
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2021.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Energy, EU Policy
@phdthesis{DiFelice2021a,
title = {Energy systems are complex. Implications for science and for policy},
author = {Louisa Jane Di Felice},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10803/671906},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
pages = {195},
school = {Universitat Aut\`{o}noma de Barcelona},
abstract = {This thesis investigates the implications of complexity for the production of models of social-ecological systems and for the science-policy interface. I focus on energy policy in the European Union (EU), through case studies developed within the Horizon 2020 project MAGIC. The way I refer to complexity builds on the work of Robert Rosen, who defined a complex system as one which can be described in non-equivalent and non-reducible ways. This powerful definition, which I refer to as Rosennian (or relational) complexity, calls for deep reflections on the way scientific knowledge is used to inform our image of the world and how we act upon that image. It focuses on the role played by observers in perceiving systems and in modelling them, through devices that I refer to as narratives. Narratives allow reducing the information space of complex reality into a manageable storyline which can be used to guide action, establishing causal patterns across impredicative processes operating at different scales. As such, they are central both to science and to policymaking. Narratives cannot be true or false, only adequate or obsolete with respect to the perception of a system. Through a series of case studies, I develop the tools needed to describe energy systems across multiple scales, question whether narratives underpinning EU energy policy are adequate in addressing their concerns and inspect the role played by academia in shaping those narratives. The methodological implications of modelling energy systems at the science-policy interface are addressed through a case study of Catalonia's energy sector. Building on hierarchy theory, the region's energy system is described in structural terms and in functional ones, showing how a functional description is useful in guiding policy questions. By mapping nexus dimensions across hierarchical levels, this first case study provides the tools to generate nexus assessments in open and transparent ways. In the second case study, a collaboration with Zora Kovacic, I focus on energy security, one of the pillars of the EU's Energy Union. Inspecting the multiple definitions and dimensions connected with energy security in the academic literature, we argue that the ambiguity of the term is functional in policymaking and is not a matter to be solved with increased definitional clarity. Rather, ambiguity is embedded in complexity. This suggests that the production of definitions and indicators of energy security in academia may not be useful to policy. The third case study analyses the narratives surrounding electric vehicles in the EU. Policy narratives in EU documents are identified through a text analysis and mapped across hierarchical levels. A taxonomy to classify policy narratives is introduced, making the distinction between normative narratives, justification narratives and explanation narratives. Through a review of existing studies and reports, the quality of the constellation of narratives surrounding electric vehicles is inspected, focusing on the relationship between normative and justification narratives. Results show how this relationship is uncertain at best. Focusing on the role played by science in informing policy, they point to the need of recognising the way in which policy narratives affect and are affected by academic ones. The fourth and most recent case study is an expansion of the first one, presented here as exploratory work in progress. The energy metabolisms of Spain, Sweden and the EU are described through holarchies, including each branch of the energy system (electricity, heat, gas and fuels). This multi-scale mapping is used to discuss two issues that are central to EU energy policy: decarbonisation and externalisation. I question EU decarbonisation narratives and highlight uncomfortable knowledge regarding the reliance of the EU's energy sector on imports.},
keywords = {Complexity, Energy, EU Policy},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {phdthesis}
}
Environmental pressure of the European agricultural system: Anticipating the biophysical consequences of internalization Journal Article
Renner, Ansel; Cadillo-Benalcazar, Juan José; Benini, Lorenzo; Giampietro, Mario
In: Ecosystem Services, 46 , pp. 101195, 2020, ISSN: 22120416.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Agroecosystem, Anticipation, Complexity, Externalization, Nexus analysis, Teleconnections
@article{Renner2020,
title = {Environmental pressure of the European agricultural system: Anticipating the biophysical consequences of internalization},
author = {Ansel Renner and Juan Jos\'{e} Cadillo-Benalcazar and Lorenzo Benini and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2212041620301376},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecoser.2020.101195},
issn = {22120416},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-12-01},
journal = {Ecosystem Services},
volume = {46},
pages = {101195},
abstract = {textcopyright 2020 The Author(s) In the European Union, national-scope efforts to protect local ecosystem services are greatly helped by the externalization of agricultural production. Domestic environmental pressures such as pesticide residue, fertilizer leakage and waterbody overdraft would all significantly increase if European agricultural production were to be re-localized. Those increases would add additional stress on local habitats, soils and freshwater reserves. This work addresses such concerns by anticipating pressure increases associated with a near-complete re-internalization of agricultural production in the European Union. Our results could prove relevant in the event of an end of the era of cheap food imports, or when considering the plausibility of economic circularization efforts (such as suggested by the European Green Deal). Rather than produce quantitative results determined by a given set of supposedly uncontested pre-analytical assumptions, this work presents an innovative approach to scientific representation capable of accommodating several possible results driven by contradictory yet equally legitimate insights. According to our characterization of the option space, which builds on current trade profiles and assumes business as usual change in technical coefficients, a near-complete re-internalization of agricultural production by European Union member states is not environmentally feasible. In relation to social viability, the required changes in social practices would include a significant increase in the share of agricultural workers in the economy and important dietary adjustments.},
keywords = {Agroecosystem, Anticipation, Complexity, Externalization, Nexus analysis, Teleconnections},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Renner, Ansel; Giampietro, Mario
In: Energy Research & Social Science, 59 , pp. 101279, 2020, ISSN: 22146296.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Electricity, Quantitative story-telling, Renewable energy, Storage
@article{Renner2020a,
title = {Socio-technical discourses of European electricity decarbonization: Contesting narrative credibility and legitimacy with quantitative story-telling},
author = {Ansel Renner and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214629619302968},
doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2019.101279},
issn = {22146296},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-01-01},
journal = {Energy Research & Social Science},
volume = {59},
pages = {101279},
abstract = {This paper presents an innovative approach to the responsible use of quantitative analysis when dealing with the governance of sustainability. Rather than using complicated models which try to predict and control the future evolution of complex adaptive systems, quantitative story-telling is proposed to check, first of all, the plausibility of proposed policies. As a case study, we check the plausibility of ‘a radical decarbonization of the European economy based on a quick deployment of alternative sources of electrical energy generation'. Although our case study includes a high-level set of quantitative results, it is primarily methodological. The procedure of quantitative story-telling includes: (1) identification of the narratives used to inform policy; (2) identification of the relevant factors determining the feasibility, viability and desirability of expected results; (3) a quantitative analysis which falsifies at least one of these three factors, indicating an implausibility of the expected results; and (4) identification of knowledge gaps in the existing discussions over the issue. The modern European energy system does need an urgent and radical transformation. However, before imposing drastic and ambitious policies, it is essential to check the quality of the diagnosis. Our analysis flags the existence of a few reasons for concern with regard to the current story-telling.},
keywords = {Complexity, Electricity, Quantitative story-telling, Renewable energy, Storage},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
An alternative to market-oriented energy models: Nexus patterns across hierarchical levels Journal Article
Felice, Louisa Jane Di; Ripa, Maddalena; Giampietro, Mario
In: Energy Policy, 126 , pp. 431–443, 2019, ISSN: 03014215.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Hierarchy Theory, MuSIASEM, Science-policy interface, Societal metabolism, Water-energy-food nexus
@article{DiFelice2019,
title = {An alternative to market-oriented energy models: Nexus patterns across hierarchical levels},
author = {Louisa Jane Di Felice and Maddalena Ripa and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421518307250},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.002},
issn = {03014215},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-03-01},
journal = {Energy Policy},
volume = {126},
pages = {431--443},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
abstract = {From a biophysical perspective, energy is central to the behaviour of social-ecological systems. Its ubiquity means that energy is entangled with nexus elements, including water, land, emissions and labour. At the science-policy interface, large market-oriented energy models dominate as the tool to inform decision-making. The outputs of these models are used to shape policies, but strongly depend on sets of assumptions that are not available for deliberation and gloss over uncertainties. Taking an approach from complexity, we propose an alternative to market-oriented energy models, describing the behaviour of energy systems in relation to patterns of nexus elements across hierarchical levels. Three characteristics are central to the approach: (i) the distinction of the model's building blocks into functional and structural elements; (ii) their hierarchical organisation and (iii) the description of nexus patterns at each level, through the tool of the processor. To illustrate the model, it is applied to Catalonia's energy sector, linking production and consumption patterns. The framework may help inform stakeholder deliberation on pressing energy and nexus issues.},
keywords = {Complexity, Hierarchy Theory, MuSIASEM, Science-policy interface, Societal metabolism, Water-energy-food nexus},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Relational analysis of energy systems: Theory and applications PhD Thesis
López, Jaime Rafael González
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2019, ISBN: 9788449088476.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Integrated assesment, MuSIASEM
@phdthesis{GonzalezLopez2019,
title = {Relational analysis of energy systems: Theory and applications},
author = {Jaime Rafael Gonz\'{a}lez L\'{o}pez},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10803/667868},
isbn = {9788449088476},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-01},
pages = {143},
school = {Universitat Aut\`{o}noma de Barcelona},
abstract = {This thesis presents a novel framework for the biophysical energetic analysis of social-ecological systems based on complexity theory. Through the implementation of MuSIASEM and Relational Analysis, it generates information useful for policy discussion in a complex world where understanding sustainability is necessary. Also, it is useful for contesting agendas at integrating non-equivalent information. With the integration of the functional and structural perspective of complex systems, questions like where, how, why and what are addressed. This framework is demonstrated with some examples mainly in the Mexican Energy Reform context. You can find that al examples cover a broad diversity of energetic systems: biomass, oil and gas, electricity, and it also is argued why this framework is necessary compared to the most popular methodologies in the contemporary era. Reducing sustainability into some ratios is avoided. This thesis embraces complexity by analyzing the non-linear relations among the different social-ecological systems with the environment and within themselves. How these relations affect different outcomes and by these the anticipation which is necessary to understand when making plans for the systems under dispute. The First Chapter presents an application of the Relational Analysis and MuSIASEM to the metabolism of a village. This village is in the transition from biomass to fossil fuel, and thus implies many adjustments over functional and structural elements in the village, due to the change from subsistence into a market-based village. Within the chosen analytical framework this change can be related to the change of type of fuel and changes in social practices within the economy. The Second Chapter presents an application of the Relational Analysis and MuSIASEM to the oil and gas sector of Mexico; the analysis is used to comment on the current Energy Reform in Mexico. This chapter brings a biophysical analysis of the oil & gas sector of Mexico. Looking at the current pattern of oil and gas production in Mexico it discusses whether Mexico should remain with the same pattern or change it. It also shows the importance of complementing the economic analysis with other types of analysis dealing with issues such as energy sovereignty, environmental impact and geographic location of economic activities. In short, it shows the importance of complementing reductionist analysis when planning. Third Chapter presents an application of the Relational Analysis and MuSIASEM to the electricity production in Mexico. The analysis of the relations between structural and functional elements allow studying the nexus between land, energy, and emissions. In particular, it elucidates the spatial constraints that can be associated with the expansion of alternative sources of electricity. In the past, we emancipated from the need of using a lot of land for energy purposes by using fossil fuels. But how strong is this emancipation when relying on intermittent electricity (wind and PV)? To answer this question, we have to address the increasing demand for importation of natural gas as a back-up of the intermittent sources of electricity, and the potential rebound effect of this solution, if the pattern of consumption remains the same. In the Fourth Chapter I demonstrate how the functional perspective can be used to introduce a novel approach to energy system analysis This application shows the weakness of assessments based on ratios (EROEI for example) if we want to address the complexity associated with sustainability. Radical simplifications of indicators of energy performance (simplistic definitions of energy) can be useful for those interested in “technofixes” but not for understanding the functioning of the system. For this reason, a systemic analysis of structural and functional relations should be incorporated in the energy analysis if we want to make it useful for the understanding of the interaction of socioecological systems.},
keywords = {Complexity, Integrated assesment, MuSIASEM},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {phdthesis}
}
Conceptualizing Numbers at the Science–Policy Interface Journal Article
Kovacic, Zora
In: Science, Technology, & Human Values, 43 (6), pp. 1039–1065, 2018, ISSN: 0162-2439.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, governance, heuristics, participation, science–policy, Uncertainty
@article{Kovacic2018b,
title = {Conceptualizing Numbers at the Science\textendashPolicy Interface},
author = {Zora Kovacic},
url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0162243918770734 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0162243918770734},
doi = {10.1177/0162243918770734},
issn = {0162-2439},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-11-01},
journal = {Science, Technology, & Human Values},
volume = {43},
number = {6},
pages = {1039--1065},
publisher = {SAGE PublicationsSage CA: Los Angeles, CA},
abstract = {Quantitative information is one of the means used to interface science with policy. As a consequence, much effort is invested in producing quantitative information for policy and much criticism is directed toward the use of numbers in policy. In this paper, I analyze five approaches drawn from such criticisms and propose alternative uses of quantitative information for governance: (i) valuation of ecosystem services, (ii) social multicriteria evaluation, (iii) quantification of uncertainty through the Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment, Pedigree approach, (iv) Quantitative Story-Telling, and (v) the heuristic use of statistics. The analysis shows the varied ways that numbers are conceptualized and how different conceptualizations matter for the science\textendashpolicy interface. Alternative conceptualizations of numbers are used to challenge the model of science-speaking truth to power. Uncertainty, complexity, pluralism, malpractice, and values are mobilized to redefine the relations between science and policy. Alternative quantification may produce alternative facts, but reflexive approaches that use numbers to discuss the relevance of equity, positionality, and quality in science for policy may offer a remedy.},
keywords = {Complexity, governance, heuristics, participation, science\textendashpolicy, Uncertainty},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Mapping degrees of complexity, complicatedness, and emergent complexity Journal Article
Allen, Timothy F. H.; Austin, Preston; Giampietro, Mario; Kovacic, Zora; Ramly, Edmond; Tainter, Joseph
In: Ecological Complexity, 35 , pp. 39–44, 2018, ISSN: 1476945X.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Complicatedness, Emergence, Level of analysis, Rosen
@article{Allen2018,
title = {Mapping degrees of complexity, complicatedness, and emergent complexity},
author = {Timothy F. H. Allen and Preston Austin and Mario Giampietro and Zora Kovacic and Edmond Ramly and Joseph Tainter},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1476945X17300454},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecocom.2017.05.004},
issn = {1476945X},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-09-01},
journal = {Ecological Complexity},
volume = {35},
pages = {39--44},
abstract = {textcopyright 2017 Elsevier B.V. This paper assesses the conceptualizations and analytical uses of complexity. Throughout the paper, we carefully eschew ontological issues, and sort out the epistemology of complexity. We try to explain why the ontology of complexity makes no sense to us, much like significance is neither material nor ontological. Our tool of choice is levels of analysis. First, we analyze the conceptualization of complexity. Much discussion of complexity is confused because complexity is mistaken as a material issue. Complexity arises from the way the situation is addressed, and is not material in itself. Even so, complexity does seem to have material ramifications without being itself a straightforward material distinction. We use an illustrative parallel example where genetic dominance is shown not to be material while having material consequences, but only after a gene is asserted to be dominant on normative criteria. Secondly, the paper compares two analytical approaches based on complexity, namely Robert Rosen's work and Joseph Tainter's work. In Rosennean complexity a system is complex if not all its constituent models are simulable, if certainty is denied. In that sense, complexity cannot be defined. Rosen's distinction is between simple and complex systems makes complexity an all or nothing proposition. Complexification is seen by Tainter as a device used by societies to solve their problems. This leads to complexity being a matter of degree in successive societal complexifications, perhaps from Neolithic hunter-gatherers to industrial societies.},
keywords = {Complexity, Complicatedness, Emergence, Level of analysis, Rosen},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Investigating science for governance through the lenses of complexity Journal Article
Kovacic, Zora
In: Futures, 91 , pp. 80–83, 2017, ISSN: 00163287.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Pluralism, Post-normal science, Post-truth, Science for policy, Uncertainty
@article{Kovacic2017a,
title = {Investigating science for governance through the lenses of complexity},
author = {Zora Kovacic},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0016328717300423},
doi = {10.1016/j.futures.2017.01.007},
issn = {00163287},
year = {2017},
date = {2017-08-01},
journal = {Futures},
volume = {91},
pages = {80--83},
publisher = {Pergamon},
abstract = {This paper assesses the contributions of complexity theory to post-normal science. The oversupply of facts in science for governance is explained as a matter of complexity, defined as irreducible pluralism in the knowledge base. The paper shows how complexity provides an interface to engage with the multiple facts of science through three different examples. First, water narratives are used to show how different scales of analysis produce contradictory scientific representations of the same system. Second, smart electricity grids are assessed to demonstrate how different levels of uncertainty are associated with different representations. Third, the case of slum upgrading is used to discuss the need to take into account stakes in science for governance.},
keywords = {Complexity, Pluralism, Post-normal science, Post-truth, Science for policy, Uncertainty},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Between theory and quantification: An integrated analysis of metabolic patterns of informal urban settlements Journal Article
Kovacic, Zora; Giampietro, Mario
In: Energy Policy, 100 , pp. 377–386, 2017, ISSN: 03014215.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Brazil, Complexity, Energy poverty, Slums, Societal metabolism, South Africa
@article{Kovacic2017b,
title = {Between theory and quantification: An integrated analysis of metabolic patterns of informal urban settlements},
author = {Zora Kovacic and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421516303524},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2016.06.047},
issn = {03014215},
year = {2017},
date = {2017-01-01},
journal = {Energy Policy},
volume = {100},
pages = {377--386},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {As informal urban settlements grow in size and population across the developing world, the issue of how to design and implement effective policies to provide for the needs and the aspirations of dwellers becomes ever more pressing. This paper addresses the challenge of how to characterise in quantitative terms the complex and fast-changing phenomenon of informal urban settlements without falling into oversimplification and a narrow focus on the material deficits of informal settlements. Energy policies are taken as an example to illustrate the shortcomings of oversimplification in producing policy relevant information. We adopt a semantically open representation of informal settlements that can capture the diversity of adaptive strategies used by different settlement typologies, based on the societal metabolism approach. Results show that as settlements grow in size and complexity, they remain economically and politically marginalised and fail to integrate into the city. We argue that in the case of energy policy, the analysis must go beyond the definition of problems such as access to energy at the level of the individual, and focus on a multi-scale assessment including the household and community levels studying the capacity of the household to increase it energy throughput through exosomatic devices and infrastructure.},
keywords = {Brazil, Complexity, Energy poverty, Slums, Societal metabolism, South Africa},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Probing uncertainty levels of electrification in informal urban settlements: A case from South Africa Journal Article
Kovacic, Zora; Smit, Suzanne; Musango, Josephine Kaviti; Brent, Alan Colin; Giampietro, Mario
In: Habitat International, 56 , pp. 212–221, 2016, ISSN: 01973975.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cities, Complexity, Energy, Slums, Upgrading, Urban metabolism
@article{Kovacic2016,
title = {Probing uncertainty levels of electrification in informal urban settlements: A case from South Africa},
author = {Zora Kovacic and Suzanne Smit and Josephine Kaviti Musango and Alan Colin Brent and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0197397515302356},
doi = {10.1016/j.habitatint.2016.06.002},
issn = {01973975},
year = {2016},
date = {2016-08-01},
journal = {Habitat International},
volume = {56},
pages = {212--221},
abstract = {textcopyright 2016 Elsevier Ltd. This paper assesses the different levels of uncertainty that affect the analysis of informal urban settlements and the implementation of upgrading policies, with a specific focus on electrification. The rapid growth of informal settlements in the cities of the Global South poses serious challenges to the management of energy systems, particularly when it comes to the electricity grid. Informal urban settlements are characterized by the lack of urban planning and low or absent provision of public services. Exponential population growth increases the complexity of urban planning. An inadequate understanding of uncertainty can undermine the effectiveness of informal settlement upgrading and deepen social inequalities. Based on the case study of the Enkanini settlement in Stellenbosch, South Africa, this paper probes three levels of uncertainty: (i) methodological uncertainty associated with the challenge of estimating energy demand and demographic changes, (ii) technical uncertainty associated with the expansion of the electric grid and securing revenues, and (iii) epistemological uncertainty associated with the definition of the relevant problems and pertinent solutions for informal settlements. The paper highlights how the focus of technical uncertainty displaces the debate on the socio-political challenges of informal settlement upgrading.},
keywords = {Cities, Complexity, Energy, Slums, Upgrading, Urban metabolism},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Empty promises or promising futures? The case of smart grids Journal Article
Kovacic, Zora; Giampietro, Mario
In: Energy, 93 , pp. 67–74, 2015, ISSN: 03605442.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Electricity, Energy, Multi-scale, Quality assessment, Uncertainty
@article{Kovacic2015a,
title = {Empty promises or promising futures? The case of smart grids},
author = {Zora Kovacic and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544215012141},
doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2015.08.116},
issn = {03605442},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-12-01},
journal = {Energy},
volume = {93},
pages = {67--74},
abstract = {The goal of this paper is to disentangle the ambiguity associated with the term smart grids. A plurality of definitions, envisioned purposes and future visions are associated with smart grids, inclusding access to electricity as a human right, t he decentralization of the energy system and the changing role of consumers, sustainability issues, energy security, and climate change. In this context, it is very difficult to assess the potential of smart grids, given the high uncertainty associated with the many challenges that this technology is supposed to face. We apply the analytical tools of complexity theory to (1) identify the different definition of smart grid that are associated with different future visions about their performance; and (2) provide a critical appraisal of these future visions in relation to the stated goals and social contexts in which they are generated. As a result, we identify the contradictions that emerge from different definitions of smart grids, the issues that are neglected and the different levels of uncertainty involved.},
keywords = {Complexity, Electricity, Energy, Multi-scale, Quality assessment, Uncertainty},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Beyond “beyond GDP indicators:” The need for reflexivity in science for governance Journal Article
Kovacic, Zora; Giampietro, Mario
In: Ecological Complexity, 21 , pp. 53–61, 2015, ISSN: 1476945X.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Integrated assessment, Post-normal science, Quality assurance, sustainability, Uncertainty
@article{Kovacic2015b,
title = {Beyond “beyond GDP indicators:” The need for reflexivity in science for governance},
author = {Zora Kovacic and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1476945X14001494},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecocom.2014.11.007},
issn = {1476945X},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-03-01},
journal = {Ecological Complexity},
volume = {21},
pages = {53--61},
abstract = {"Beyond GDP" initiatives flag the limits of the quantitative indicators of progress currently used for governance. Focusing on the quality assessment of quantitative information used for governance, we use some of the conceptual tools of theoretical ecology and evolutionary biology in order to identify the pre-analytical choices that determine the usefulness and pertinence of a model. Starting from the definition of a model as a formal representation of a specific and necessarily subjective observation, we show that the production of indicators is the final result of a series of decisions on what to observe and how. These choices, in turn, depend on the narrative, or set of narratives, adopted. Narratives provide causality and context to knowledge claims and are needed to select the indicators to be used for policy. Moving beyond the GDP debate requires reflexivity, that is, awareness of the key role that pre-analytical choices play in the definition of both the relevance of the chosen perceptions and narratives (determined by the normative stands of different actors - who defines wellbeing?), and the usefulness of the chosen models and data (determined by the pertinence of the resulting representation - how to measure wellbeing?). Reflexivity is essential in order to take into account the purposes for which different indicators were created and to define new purposes for the "beyond GDP" indicators.},
keywords = {Complexity, Integrated assessment, Post-normal science, Quality assurance, sustainability, Uncertainty},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Quality assurance of knowledge claims in governance for sustainability: transcending the duality of passion vs. reason Journal Article
Giampietro, Mario; Bukkens, Sandra G. F.
In: International Journal of Sustainable Development, 18 (4), pp. 282, 2015, ISSN: 0960-1406.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Integrated assessment, Knowledge claims, Multi-criteria analysis, Quality control, Science for governance, Sustainable Development
@article{Giampietro2015,
title = {Quality assurance of knowledge claims in governance for sustainability: transcending the duality of passion vs. reason},
author = {Mario Giampietro and Sandra G. F. Bukkens},
url = {http://www.inderscience.com/link.php?id=72662},
doi = {10.1504/IJSD.2015.072662},
issn = {0960-1406},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-01-01},
journal = {International Journal of Sustainable Development},
volume = {18},
number = {4},
pages = {282},
abstract = {The main problem of quality assurance on knowledge claims lies in the entanglement of normative (value-driven moral stands) and descriptive (narratives about causality) dimensions at different organisational levels of decision-making. Individuals must choose among contrasting legitimate narratives about "the right thing to do" while facing uncertainty about the outcome of their choice. The scientific community faces exactly the same predicament, but without being able to legitimately choose among contrasting value-driven moral stands. At the societal level, existing institutional settings are incapable of guaranteeing the quality of collective choices. Three types of quality control are needed for the proper production and use of knowledge claims for governance: on the usefulness of the chosen problem structuring (relevance); on the pertinence of the scientific representation (plausibility); on the effectiveness of the validation process (fairness). These quality checks are required to legitimise the decision-making process, thus transcending the traditional duality between passion and reason.},
keywords = {Complexity, Integrated assessment, Knowledge claims, Multi-criteria analysis, Quality control, Science for governance, Sustainable Development},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Holons, creaons, genons, environs, in hierarchy theory: Where we have gone Journal Article
Allen, Timothy; Giampietro, Mario
In: Ecological Modelling, 293 , pp. 31–41, 2014, ISSN: 03043800.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Hierarchy Theory, Holon, Narrative, Network ecology, Systems analysis
@article{Allen2014,
title = {Holons, creaons, genons, environs, in hierarchy theory: Where we have gone},
author = {Timothy Allen and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0304380014002993},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2014.06.017},
issn = {03043800},
year = {2014},
date = {2014-12-01},
journal = {Ecological Modelling},
volume = {293},
pages = {31--41},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {This paper compares and contrasts hierarchy theory and network theory, with the purpose of instructing practitioners in both fields, particularly network theorist, as to how each might relate, and translate to the other. Hierarchy theory and network theory are distinctive but twins. Network theory works its way upscale, incrementally, while hierarchy theory reaches upscale, happy to redefine situations at each new level. Both theories are distinguished from most others in their use of holons. Holons are the vehicle used in this paper to tie network and hierarchy theory together, and show how working in tandem they can advance complexity theory in biology in general. Holons are dual structures that embody contradiction in simultaneous wholeness and partness. Patten defines holons in terms of how they function, and in this way he translates across levels with explicit steps. He does this by specifying the input environs (environment) to feed creaons, the input points of holons. The output environ is fed by the holon's genon, the points of output. These steps limit the rescaling of network theory, but allow quantification all the way. Hierarchy theory is not so limited in rescaling, but it pays the price of limiting quantification across levels. Hierarchy theory reaches further upscale with set theoretic devices that make it robust across many levels. It is explicit about the categories. Networks are internally consistent and so present models, the dualities of holons notwithstanding. When inconsistency looms, hierarchy theory moves to narratives, which do not have to be consistent, as models must. In a new elaboration of holon here, hierarchy theory identifies an energy/matter half separate from a coded information half. There are three processes: creating, becoming something else, and narrating to the world; all three progress at their own rates, associated with different causalities. It all maps onto taxon, creaon, genon, and environs, emphasizing the larger unity of network and hierarchy theory. Biological and ecological sub-disciplines map onto different parts of the holon. There is also a new theory of how observer decisions are critical in holons. The move between levels that characterizes complexity causes complex systems to become undefinable. With regard to that issue hierarchy theory offers the robustness of narrative form, while network theory hangs on to definitions as long as it can. As hierarchy theory moves upscale, fixed parameters become variables and lose their constancy. In this way structures melt into behavior of some yet higher level structure. Hierarchy theory considers melting structure as being no problem, while network theory ignores the fact that just beyond its purview, structures do indeed melt. So we need hierarchy theory and network theory in tandem to make network theory bolder, and hierarchy theory more tractably quantitative.},
keywords = {Complexity, Hierarchy Theory, Holon, Narrative, Network ecology, Systems analysis},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Flows, funds and the complexity of deprivation: Using concepts from ecological economics for the study of poverty Journal Article
Scheidel, Arnim
In: Ecological Economics, 86 , pp. 28–36, 2013, ISSN: 09218009.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Capability approach, Complexity, Flow-fund framework, Incommensurability, Multidimensional poverty
@article{Scheidel2013a,
title = {Flows, funds and the complexity of deprivation: Using concepts from ecological economics for the study of poverty},
author = {Arnim Scheidel},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921800912004454},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.10.019},
issn = {09218009},
year = {2013},
date = {2013-02-01},
journal = {Ecological Economics},
volume = {86},
pages = {28--36},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Poverty has been increasingly conceptualized as being multidimensional, involving deprivation in many dimensions of life. This paper discusses issues and implications of multidimensional poverty by adopting concepts commonly used in ecological economics. In particular, poverty is approached as an irreducible, complex phenomenon for which many legitimate, but non-equivalent descriptions exist. Issues of social and technical incommensurability are illustrated for different meanings and measurement types of poverty. Georgescu-Roegen's flow/fund framework is interpreted, informed by the capability approach of Amartya Sen. The paper argues that a predominant focus on flows as a proxy to analyze poverty represents rather a short-term perspective on access to satisfiers to fulfill particular needs. Contrary to that, focusing on valued funds may provide useful information for the analysis of capabilities that persons and societies might pursue in the long term. Furthermore, it is argued that strong poverty alleviation needs to adopt analytical tools that can deal with non-trade-off cases: improvements in one poverty dimension cannot always compensate for the deterioration of other poverties. This implies to rethink the usefulness of aggregate multidimensional poverty indices, as well as the predominant use of income measures. textcopyright 2012 Elsevier B.V.},
keywords = {Capability approach, Complexity, Flow-fund framework, Incommensurability, Multidimensional poverty},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Flows, funds and the complexity of deprivation: Using concepts from ecological economics for the study of poverty Journal Article
Scheidel, Arnim
In: Ecological Economics, 86 , pp. 28–36, 2013, ISSN: 09218009.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Capability approach, Complexity, Flow-fund framework, Incommensurability, Multidimensional poverty
@article{Scheidel2013b,
title = {Flows, funds and the complexity of deprivation: Using concepts from ecological economics for the study of poverty},
author = {Arnim Scheidel},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0921800912004454},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2012.10.019},
issn = {09218009},
year = {2013},
date = {2013-02-01},
journal = {Ecological Economics},
volume = {86},
pages = {28--36},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Poverty has been increasingly conceptualized as being multidimensional, involving deprivation in many dimensions of life. This paper discusses issues and implications of multidimensional poverty by adopting concepts commonly used in ecological economics. In particular, poverty is approached as an irreducible, complex phenomenon for which many legitimate, but non-equivalent descriptions exist. Issues of social and technical incommensurability are illustrated for different meanings and measurement types of poverty. Georgescu-Roegen's flow/fund framework is interpreted, informed by the capability approach of Amartya Sen. The paper argues that a predominant focus on flows as a proxy to analyze poverty represents rather a short-term perspective on access to satisfiers to fulfill particular needs. Contrary to that, focusing on valued funds may provide useful information for the analysis of capabilities that persons and societies might pursue in the long term. Furthermore, it is argued that strong poverty alleviation needs to adopt analytical tools that can deal with non-trade-off cases: improvements in one poverty dimension cannot always compensate for the deterioration of other poverties. This implies to rethink the usefulness of aggregate multidimensional poverty indices, as well as the predominant use of income measures. textcopyright 2012 Elsevier B.V.},
keywords = {Capability approach, Complexity, Flow-fund framework, Incommensurability, Multidimensional poverty},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
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