Publications
Unraveling complex relations between forest-cover change and conflicts through spatial and relational analyses Journal Article
Pérez-Llorente, Irene; Ramírez, M. Isabel; Paneque-Gálvez, Jaime; Orozco, Claudio Garibay; González-López, Rafael
In: Ecology and Society, 24 (3), pp. art3, 2019, ISSN: 1708-3087.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: central Mexico, Complexity theory, environmental conflicts, land-cover/land-use change, Uncertainty
@article{Perez-Llorente2019,
title = {Unraveling complex relations between forest-cover change and conflicts through spatial and relational analyses},
author = {Irene P\'{e}rez-Llorente and M. Isabel Ram\'{i}rez and Jaime Paneque-G\'{a}lvez and Claudio Garibay Orozco and Rafael Gonz\'{a}lez-L\'{o}pez},
url = {https://doi.org/10.5751/ https://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol24/iss3/art3/},
doi = {10.5751/ES-10992-240303},
issn = {1708-3087},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-07-01},
journal = {Ecology and Society},
volume = {24},
number = {3},
pages = {art3},
publisher = {The Resilience Alliance},
abstract = {Despite the increasing prevalence of forest-cover change and conflicts, most studies have been unable to unravel the complex relations between the two processes. We attribute this failure to methodological limitations. We put forward an alternative approach that combines different datasets (remote sensing, GIS, local narratives, official censuses, newspaper articles), methods (spatial and relational analyses), and scales (subregions, economic sectors, land-based activities) to create a robust explanation of the relations between different intensities of forest-cover change and conflict in the Meseta Pur\'{e}pecha region, central Mexico. This is an important forest region, inhabited by indigenous and mestizo peasants; it has a worldwide reputation for community forestry and is also the epicenter of international avocado production. Forest-cover change is intense and there are recurrent episodes of conflict. We clustered communities in three subregions according to their patterns of forest-cover change. We analyzed the spatial patterns of forest-cover change and conflicts and we characterized the structure and function of the different economic sectors to unravel the nonlinear, interdependent (and sometimes contradictory) relations among these processes. We found that avocado production has differentially shaped the composition and working of society within each subregion, leading to three diverging patterns. Avocado production has provoked conflicts over landownership and over illegal logging in nearby areas. In some areas, a low incidence of conflicts over forest clearance might be explained by high profits, coercion, and violence. We suggest that, by combining spatial and relational analyses, we can integrate and check the congruence of nonequivalent representations from quantitative sources and observant participation at different scales and explain the heterogeneity that processes display across space. Our methodological approach can thus improve our understanding of similar and other complex and uncertain environmental problems elsewhere, especially when accurate or appropriate data are missing.},
keywords = {central Mexico, Complexity theory, environmental conflicts, land-cover/land-use change, Uncertainty},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Despite the increasing prevalence of forest-cover change and conflicts, most studies have been unable to unravel the complex relations between the two processes. We attribute this failure to methodological limitations. We put forward an alternative approach that combines different datasets (remote sensing, GIS, local narratives, official censuses, newspaper articles), methods (spatial and relational analyses), and scales (subregions, economic sectors, land-based activities) to create a robust explanation of the relations between different intensities of forest-cover change and conflict in the Meseta Purépecha region, central Mexico. This is an important forest region, inhabited by indigenous and mestizo peasants; it has a worldwide reputation for community forestry and is also the epicenter of international avocado production. Forest-cover change is intense and there are recurrent episodes of conflict. We clustered communities in three subregions according to their patterns of forest-cover change. We analyzed the spatial patterns of forest-cover change and conflicts and we characterized the structure and function of the different economic sectors to unravel the nonlinear, interdependent (and sometimes contradictory) relations among these processes. We found that avocado production has differentially shaped the composition and working of society within each subregion, leading to three diverging patterns. Avocado production has provoked conflicts over landownership and over illegal logging in nearby areas. In some areas, a low incidence of conflicts over forest clearance might be explained by high profits, coercion, and violence. We suggest that, by combining spatial and relational analyses, we can integrate and check the congruence of nonequivalent representations from quantitative sources and observant participation at different scales and explain the heterogeneity that processes display across space. Our methodological approach can thus improve our understanding of similar and other complex and uncertain environmental problems elsewhere, especially when accurate or appropriate data are missing.
Conceptualizing Numbers at the Science–Policy Interface Journal Article
Kovacic, Zora
In: Science, Technology, & Human Values, 43 (6), pp. 1039–1065, 2018, ISSN: 0162-2439.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, governance, heuristics, participation, science–policy, Uncertainty
@article{Kovacic2018b,
title = {Conceptualizing Numbers at the Science\textendashPolicy Interface},
author = {Zora Kovacic},
url = {https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0162243918770734 http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0162243918770734},
doi = {10.1177/0162243918770734},
issn = {0162-2439},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-11-01},
journal = {Science, Technology, & Human Values},
volume = {43},
number = {6},
pages = {1039--1065},
publisher = {SAGE PublicationsSage CA: Los Angeles, CA},
abstract = {Quantitative information is one of the means used to interface science with policy. As a consequence, much effort is invested in producing quantitative information for policy and much criticism is directed toward the use of numbers in policy. In this paper, I analyze five approaches drawn from such criticisms and propose alternative uses of quantitative information for governance: (i) valuation of ecosystem services, (ii) social multicriteria evaluation, (iii) quantification of uncertainty through the Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment, Pedigree approach, (iv) Quantitative Story-Telling, and (v) the heuristic use of statistics. The analysis shows the varied ways that numbers are conceptualized and how different conceptualizations matter for the science\textendashpolicy interface. Alternative conceptualizations of numbers are used to challenge the model of science-speaking truth to power. Uncertainty, complexity, pluralism, malpractice, and values are mobilized to redefine the relations between science and policy. Alternative quantification may produce alternative facts, but reflexive approaches that use numbers to discuss the relevance of equity, positionality, and quality in science for policy may offer a remedy.},
keywords = {Complexity, governance, heuristics, participation, science\textendashpolicy, Uncertainty},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Quantitative information is one of the means used to interface science with policy. As a consequence, much effort is invested in producing quantitative information for policy and much criticism is directed toward the use of numbers in policy. In this paper, I analyze five approaches drawn from such criticisms and propose alternative uses of quantitative information for governance: (i) valuation of ecosystem services, (ii) social multicriteria evaluation, (iii) quantification of uncertainty through the Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment, Pedigree approach, (iv) Quantitative Story-Telling, and (v) the heuristic use of statistics. The analysis shows the varied ways that numbers are conceptualized and how different conceptualizations matter for the science–policy interface. Alternative conceptualizations of numbers are used to challenge the model of science-speaking truth to power. Uncertainty, complexity, pluralism, malpractice, and values are mobilized to redefine the relations between science and policy. Alternative quantification may produce alternative facts, but reflexive approaches that use numbers to discuss the relevance of equity, positionality, and quality in science for policy may offer a remedy.
Investigating science for governance through the lenses of complexity Journal Article
Kovacic, Zora
In: Futures, 91 , pp. 80–83, 2017, ISSN: 00163287.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Pluralism, Post-normal science, Post-truth, Science for policy, Uncertainty
@article{Kovacic2017a,
title = {Investigating science for governance through the lenses of complexity},
author = {Zora Kovacic},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0016328717300423},
doi = {10.1016/j.futures.2017.01.007},
issn = {00163287},
year = {2017},
date = {2017-08-01},
journal = {Futures},
volume = {91},
pages = {80--83},
publisher = {Pergamon},
abstract = {This paper assesses the contributions of complexity theory to post-normal science. The oversupply of facts in science for governance is explained as a matter of complexity, defined as irreducible pluralism in the knowledge base. The paper shows how complexity provides an interface to engage with the multiple facts of science through three different examples. First, water narratives are used to show how different scales of analysis produce contradictory scientific representations of the same system. Second, smart electricity grids are assessed to demonstrate how different levels of uncertainty are associated with different representations. Third, the case of slum upgrading is used to discuss the need to take into account stakes in science for governance.},
keywords = {Complexity, Pluralism, Post-normal science, Post-truth, Science for policy, Uncertainty},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This paper assesses the contributions of complexity theory to post-normal science. The oversupply of facts in science for governance is explained as a matter of complexity, defined as irreducible pluralism in the knowledge base. The paper shows how complexity provides an interface to engage with the multiple facts of science through three different examples. First, water narratives are used to show how different scales of analysis produce contradictory scientific representations of the same system. Second, smart electricity grids are assessed to demonstrate how different levels of uncertainty are associated with different representations. Third, the case of slum upgrading is used to discuss the need to take into account stakes in science for governance.
Empty promises or promising futures? The case of smart grids Journal Article
Kovacic, Zora; Giampietro, Mario
In: Energy, 93 , pp. 67–74, 2015, ISSN: 03605442.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Electricity, Energy, Multi-scale, Quality assessment, Uncertainty
@article{Kovacic2015a,
title = {Empty promises or promising futures? The case of smart grids},
author = {Zora Kovacic and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544215012141},
doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2015.08.116},
issn = {03605442},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-12-01},
journal = {Energy},
volume = {93},
pages = {67--74},
abstract = {The goal of this paper is to disentangle the ambiguity associated with the term smart grids. A plurality of definitions, envisioned purposes and future visions are associated with smart grids, inclusding access to electricity as a human right, t he decentralization of the energy system and the changing role of consumers, sustainability issues, energy security, and climate change. In this context, it is very difficult to assess the potential of smart grids, given the high uncertainty associated with the many challenges that this technology is supposed to face. We apply the analytical tools of complexity theory to (1) identify the different definition of smart grid that are associated with different future visions about their performance; and (2) provide a critical appraisal of these future visions in relation to the stated goals and social contexts in which they are generated. As a result, we identify the contradictions that emerge from different definitions of smart grids, the issues that are neglected and the different levels of uncertainty involved.},
keywords = {Complexity, Electricity, Energy, Multi-scale, Quality assessment, Uncertainty},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The goal of this paper is to disentangle the ambiguity associated with the term smart grids. A plurality of definitions, envisioned purposes and future visions are associated with smart grids, inclusding access to electricity as a human right, t he decentralization of the energy system and the changing role of consumers, sustainability issues, energy security, and climate change. In this context, it is very difficult to assess the potential of smart grids, given the high uncertainty associated with the many challenges that this technology is supposed to face. We apply the analytical tools of complexity theory to (1) identify the different definition of smart grid that are associated with different future visions about their performance; and (2) provide a critical appraisal of these future visions in relation to the stated goals and social contexts in which they are generated. As a result, we identify the contradictions that emerge from different definitions of smart grids, the issues that are neglected and the different levels of uncertainty involved.
Beyond “beyond GDP indicators:” The need for reflexivity in science for governance Journal Article
Kovacic, Zora; Giampietro, Mario
In: Ecological Complexity, 21 , pp. 53–61, 2015, ISSN: 1476945X.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Integrated assessment, Post-normal science, Quality assurance, sustainability, Uncertainty
@article{Kovacic2015b,
title = {Beyond “beyond GDP indicators:” The need for reflexivity in science for governance},
author = {Zora Kovacic and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1476945X14001494},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecocom.2014.11.007},
issn = {1476945X},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-03-01},
journal = {Ecological Complexity},
volume = {21},
pages = {53--61},
abstract = {"Beyond GDP" initiatives flag the limits of the quantitative indicators of progress currently used for governance. Focusing on the quality assessment of quantitative information used for governance, we use some of the conceptual tools of theoretical ecology and evolutionary biology in order to identify the pre-analytical choices that determine the usefulness and pertinence of a model. Starting from the definition of a model as a formal representation of a specific and necessarily subjective observation, we show that the production of indicators is the final result of a series of decisions on what to observe and how. These choices, in turn, depend on the narrative, or set of narratives, adopted. Narratives provide causality and context to knowledge claims and are needed to select the indicators to be used for policy. Moving beyond the GDP debate requires reflexivity, that is, awareness of the key role that pre-analytical choices play in the definition of both the relevance of the chosen perceptions and narratives (determined by the normative stands of different actors - who defines wellbeing?), and the usefulness of the chosen models and data (determined by the pertinence of the resulting representation - how to measure wellbeing?). Reflexivity is essential in order to take into account the purposes for which different indicators were created and to define new purposes for the "beyond GDP" indicators.},
keywords = {Complexity, Integrated assessment, Post-normal science, Quality assurance, sustainability, Uncertainty},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
"Beyond GDP" initiatives flag the limits of the quantitative indicators of progress currently used for governance. Focusing on the quality assessment of quantitative information used for governance, we use some of the conceptual tools of theoretical ecology and evolutionary biology in order to identify the pre-analytical choices that determine the usefulness and pertinence of a model. Starting from the definition of a model as a formal representation of a specific and necessarily subjective observation, we show that the production of indicators is the final result of a series of decisions on what to observe and how. These choices, in turn, depend on the narrative, or set of narratives, adopted. Narratives provide causality and context to knowledge claims and are needed to select the indicators to be used for policy. Moving beyond the GDP debate requires reflexivity, that is, awareness of the key role that pre-analytical choices play in the definition of both the relevance of the chosen perceptions and narratives (determined by the normative stands of different actors - who defines wellbeing?), and the usefulness of the chosen models and data (determined by the pertinence of the resulting representation - how to measure wellbeing?). Reflexivity is essential in order to take into account the purposes for which different indicators were created and to define new purposes for the "beyond GDP" indicators.
AGAUR Grant ID 2017 SGR 230 / Copyright © 2023