Publications

@article{Kovacic2019,

title = {Complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity: Implications for European Union energy governance},

author = {Zora Kovacic and Louisa Jane Di Felice},

url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S221462961831137X},

doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2019.03.005},

issn = {22146296},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-07-01},

journal = {Energy Research & Social Science},

volume = {53},

pages = {159--169},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Energy security is an ambiguous concept. Growing academic interest has aimed at defining, conceptualising and measuring energy security, often through indicators. Energy policy in the European Union (EU) is not concerned with energy security's ambiguous conceptualisation, nor does it use energy security indicators, but it refers consistently to security as one of its primary aims. In this paper, by analysing the use of energy security both in scientific publications and in EU policy, we argue that the ambiguity of the concept plays a function in the policy process and is only seen as a problem in the academic literature. Building on the uncertainty literature, we conceptualise ambiguity as the type of uncertainty that emerges from complexity. Complexity leads to the existence of multiple representations of a system, which may serve different purposes in the policy process, generating ambiguity. Uncertainty is mobilised to frame energy policy as a matter of security. This has implications for the science-policy interface: on one hand, the analysis suggests that science's aim of providing holistic assessments and clarifications may not serve its desired instrumental purpose in policymaking; on the other, ambiguity allows for materially ineffective policy measures to persist in the name of energy security.},

keywords = {Definition, Energy security, Indicators, Policy-making, Science-policy interface},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{DiFelice2019,

title = {An alternative to market-oriented energy models: Nexus patterns across hierarchical levels},

author = {Louisa Jane Di Felice and Maddalena Ripa and Mario Giampietro},

url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0301421518307250},

doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2018.11.002},

issn = {03014215},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-03-01},

journal = {Energy Policy},

volume = {126},

pages = {431--443},

publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},

abstract = {From a biophysical perspective, energy is central to the behaviour of social-ecological systems. Its ubiquity means that energy is entangled with nexus elements, including water, land, emissions and labour. At the science-policy interface, large market-oriented energy models dominate as the tool to inform decision-making. The outputs of these models are used to shape policies, but strongly depend on sets of assumptions that are not available for deliberation and gloss over uncertainties. Taking an approach from complexity, we propose an alternative to market-oriented energy models, describing the behaviour of energy systems in relation to patterns of nexus elements across hierarchical levels. Three characteristics are central to the approach: (i) the distinction of the model's building blocks into functional and structural elements; (ii) their hierarchical organisation and (iii) the description of nexus patterns at each level, through the tool of the processor. To illustrate the model, it is applied to Catalonia's energy sector, linking production and consumption patterns. The framework may help inform stakeholder deliberation on pressing energy and nexus issues.},

keywords = {Complexity, Hierarchy Theory, MuSIASEM, Science-policy interface, Societal metabolism, Water-energy-food nexus},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{DiFelice2018,

title = {Deep Decarbonisation from a Biophysical Perspective: GHG Emissions of a Renewable Electricity Transformation in the EU},

author = {Louisa Di Felice and Maddalena Ripa and Mario Giampietro},

url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/10/3685},

doi = {10.3390/su10103685},

issn = {2071-1050},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-10-01},

journal = {Sustainability},

volume = {10},

number = {10},

pages = {3685},

publisher = {MDPI AG},

abstract = {In light of climate change and security concerns, decarbonisation has become a priority for industrialised countries. In the European Union (EU), decarbonisation scenarios used to support decision-making predict a steady decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mostly driven by changes in production mixes and improvements in efficiency. In the EU's decarbonisation pathways, the power sector plays a large role, reaching zero emissions by 2050. From a biophysical perspective, decarbonisation becomes not just a matter of replacing carbon-intensive with carbon-neutral electricity flows, but also a matter of building and maintaining new infrastructure (funds) which, in turn, is associated with GHG emissions. By not accounting for the emissions associated with funds, particularly those required to increase grid flexibility, scenarios used to inform decarbonisation narratives in the EU are missing a key part of the picture. We show that a rapid and deep decarbonisation of the EU's power sector through a production-side transition between the years 2020 and 2050 leads to cumulative emissions of the order of 21\textendash25 Gt of CO2 equivalent, within a range of approximately 35\textendash45%. The results are obtained by modelling two decarbonisation pathways where grid flexibility increases either through storage or through curtailment. The analysis suggests that scenarios informing decarbonisation policies in the EU are optimistic and may lead to a narrow focus on sustainable production transformations. This minimises the perceived urgency of reducing overall energy consumption to stay within safe carbon budgets.},

keywords = {Bio-economics, Curtailment, Energy transition, Grid flexibility, Modelling, Science-policy interface, Storage},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}