Publications

@article{Renner2020a,

title = {Socio-technical discourses of European electricity decarbonization: Contesting narrative credibility and legitimacy with quantitative story-telling},

author = {Ansel Renner and Mario Giampietro},

url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214629619302968},

doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2019.101279},

issn = {22146296},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Energy Research & Social Science},

volume = {59},

pages = {101279},

abstract = {This paper presents an innovative approach to the responsible use of quantitative analysis when dealing with the governance of sustainability. Rather than using complicated models which try to predict and control the future evolution of complex adaptive systems, quantitative story-telling is proposed to check, first of all, the plausibility of proposed policies. As a case study, we check the plausibility of ‘a radical decarbonization of the European economy based on a quick deployment of alternative sources of electrical energy generation'. Although our case study includes a high-level set of quantitative results, it is primarily methodological. The procedure of quantitative story-telling includes: (1) identification of the narratives used to inform policy; (2) identification of the relevant factors determining the feasibility, viability and desirability of expected results; (3) a quantitative analysis which falsifies at least one of these three factors, indicating an implausibility of the expected results; and (4) identification of knowledge gaps in the existing discussions over the issue. The modern European energy system does need an urgent and radical transformation. However, before imposing drastic and ambitious policies, it is essential to check the quality of the diagnosis. Our analysis flags the existence of a few reasons for concern with regard to the current story-telling.},

keywords = {Complexity, Electricity, Quantitative story-telling, Renewable energy, Storage},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{DiFelice2018,

title = {Deep Decarbonisation from a Biophysical Perspective: GHG Emissions of a Renewable Electricity Transformation in the EU},

author = {Louisa Di Felice and Maddalena Ripa and Mario Giampietro},

url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/10/3685},

doi = {10.3390/su10103685},

issn = {2071-1050},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-10-01},

journal = {Sustainability},

volume = {10},

number = {10},

pages = {3685},

publisher = {MDPI AG},

abstract = {In light of climate change and security concerns, decarbonisation has become a priority for industrialised countries. In the European Union (EU), decarbonisation scenarios used to support decision-making predict a steady decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mostly driven by changes in production mixes and improvements in efficiency. In the EU's decarbonisation pathways, the power sector plays a large role, reaching zero emissions by 2050. From a biophysical perspective, decarbonisation becomes not just a matter of replacing carbon-intensive with carbon-neutral electricity flows, but also a matter of building and maintaining new infrastructure (funds) which, in turn, is associated with GHG emissions. By not accounting for the emissions associated with funds, particularly those required to increase grid flexibility, scenarios used to inform decarbonisation narratives in the EU are missing a key part of the picture. We show that a rapid and deep decarbonisation of the EU's power sector through a production-side transition between the years 2020 and 2050 leads to cumulative emissions of the order of 21\textendash25 Gt of CO2 equivalent, within a range of approximately 35\textendash45%. The results are obtained by modelling two decarbonisation pathways where grid flexibility increases either through storage or through curtailment. The analysis suggests that scenarios informing decarbonisation policies in the EU are optimistic and may lead to a narrow focus on sustainable production transformations. This minimises the perceived urgency of reducing overall energy consumption to stay within safe carbon budgets.},

keywords = {Bio-economics, Curtailment, Energy transition, Grid flexibility, Modelling, Science-policy interface, Storage},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}