Publications

@article{Renner2020a,

title = {Socio-technical discourses of European electricity decarbonization: Contesting narrative credibility and legitimacy with quantitative story-telling},

author = {Ansel Renner and Mario Giampietro},

url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S2214629619302968},

doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2019.101279},

issn = {22146296},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Energy Research & Social Science},

volume = {59},

pages = {101279},

abstract = {This paper presents an innovative approach to the responsible use of quantitative analysis when dealing with the governance of sustainability. Rather than using complicated models which try to predict and control the future evolution of complex adaptive systems, quantitative story-telling is proposed to check, first of all, the plausibility of proposed policies. As a case study, we check the plausibility of ‘a radical decarbonization of the European economy based on a quick deployment of alternative sources of electrical energy generation'. Although our case study includes a high-level set of quantitative results, it is primarily methodological. The procedure of quantitative story-telling includes: (1) identification of the narratives used to inform policy; (2) identification of the relevant factors determining the feasibility, viability and desirability of expected results; (3) a quantitative analysis which falsifies at least one of these three factors, indicating an implausibility of the expected results; and (4) identification of knowledge gaps in the existing discussions over the issue. The modern European energy system does need an urgent and radical transformation. However, before imposing drastic and ambitious policies, it is essential to check the quality of the diagnosis. Our analysis flags the existence of a few reasons for concern with regard to the current story-telling.},

keywords = {Complexity, Electricity, Quantitative story-telling, Renewable energy, Storage},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Kovacic2015a,

title = {Empty promises or promising futures? The case of smart grids},

author = {Zora Kovacic and Mario Giampietro},

url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544215012141},

doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2015.08.116},

issn = {03605442},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-12-01},

journal = {Energy},

volume = {93},

pages = {67--74},

abstract = {The goal of this paper is to disentangle the ambiguity associated with the term smart grids. A plurality of definitions, envisioned purposes and future visions are associated with smart grids, inclusding access to electricity as a human right, t he decentralization of the energy system and the changing role of consumers, sustainability issues, energy security, and climate change. In this context, it is very difficult to assess the potential of smart grids, given the high uncertainty associated with the many challenges that this technology is supposed to face. We apply the analytical tools of complexity theory to (1) identify the different definition of smart grid that are associated with different future visions about their performance; and (2) provide a critical appraisal of these future visions in relation to the stated goals and social contexts in which they are generated. As a result, we identify the contradictions that emerge from different definitions of smart grids, the issues that are neglected and the different levels of uncertainty involved.},

keywords = {Complexity, Electricity, Energy, Multi-scale, Quality assessment, Uncertainty},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}