Publications
The profile of time allocation in the metabolic pattern of society: An internal biophysical limit to economic growth Journal Article
Manfroni, Michele; Velasco-Fernández, Raúl; Pérez-Sánchez, Laura; Bukkens, Sandra G. F.; Giampietro, Mario
In: Ecological Economics, 190 , pp. 107183, 2021, ISSN: 09218009.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Energy, Human activity, MuSIASEM, Social practices, Societal metabolism, sustainability, Sustainable production and consumption
@article{Manfroni2021a,
title = {The profile of time allocation in the metabolic pattern of society: An internal biophysical limit to economic growth},
author = {Michele Manfroni and Ra\'{u}l Velasco-Fern\'{a}ndez and Laura P\'{e}rez-S\'{a}nchez and Sandra G. F. Bukkens and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S092180092100241X},
doi = {10.1016/j.ecolecon.2021.107183},
issn = {09218009},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-12-01},
journal = {Ecological Economics},
volume = {190},
pages = {107183},
abstract = {We show that shortage of human activity may represent an internal constraint to economic growth as relevant as external resource and sink constraints. Human time is required, both inside and outside the market, to produce and consume the goods and services needed to sustain societal metabolism. The time allocation profile is therefore an emergent property of the societal metabolic pattern. When most time is invested in services and final consumption rather than supplying the inputs required by the metabolic process, further growth is constrained. This problem may be temporarily overcome by three strategies: (i) increasing capital investment to boost labor productivity in the productive sectors; (ii) externalizing the requirement of working hours through imports of goods and services; (iii) importing economically active population through immigration. Each strategy is illustrated with an empirical example: (i) a comparison of the evolution of the profile of time and capital allocation between China and the EU; (ii) an assessment of the labor hours embodied in EU imports; (iii) an analysis of demographic changes in response to immigration in Spain. While these strategies can temporarily overcome constraints to economic growth at the national level, they do not represent a long-term solution at the global level.},
keywords = {Energy, Human activity, MuSIASEM, Social practices, Societal metabolism, sustainability, Sustainable production and consumption},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
We show that shortage of human activity may represent an internal constraint to economic growth as relevant as external resource and sink constraints. Human time is required, both inside and outside the market, to produce and consume the goods and services needed to sustain societal metabolism. The time allocation profile is therefore an emergent property of the societal metabolic pattern. When most time is invested in services and final consumption rather than supplying the inputs required by the metabolic process, further growth is constrained. This problem may be temporarily overcome by three strategies: (i) increasing capital investment to boost labor productivity in the productive sectors; (ii) externalizing the requirement of working hours through imports of goods and services; (iii) importing economically active population through immigration. Each strategy is illustrated with an empirical example: (i) a comparison of the evolution of the profile of time and capital allocation between China and the EU; (ii) an assessment of the labor hours embodied in EU imports; (iii) an analysis of demographic changes in response to immigration in Spain. While these strategies can temporarily overcome constraints to economic growth at the national level, they do not represent a long-term solution at the global level.
Matthews, Keith B.; Renner, Ansel; Blackstock, Kirsty L.; Waylen, Kerry A.; Miller, Dave G.; Wardell-Johnson, Doug H.; Juarez-Bourke, Alba; Cadillo-Benalcazar, Juan; Schyns, Joep F.; Giampietro, Mario
In: Sustainability, 13 (18), pp. 10080, 2021, ISSN: 2071-1050.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: common agricultural policy, Energy, FADN, food nexus, Societal metabolism, sustainability, Water
@article{Matthews2021,
title = {Old Wine in New Bottles: Exploiting Data from the EU's Farm Accountancy Data Network for Pan-EU Sustainability Assessments of Agricultural Production Systems},
author = {Keith B. Matthews and Ansel Renner and Kirsty L. Blackstock and Kerry A. Waylen and Dave G. Miller and Doug H. Wardell-Johnson and Alba Juarez-Bourke and Juan Cadillo-Benalcazar and Joep F. Schyns and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/18/10080/htm https://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/13/18/10080},
doi = {10.3390/su131810080},
issn = {2071-1050},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-09-01},
journal = {Sustainability},
volume = {13},
number = {18},
pages = {10080},
publisher = {Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute},
abstract = {The paper presents insights from carrying out a pan-EU sustainability assessment using Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data (the old wine) with societal metabolism accounting (SMA) processes (the new bottles). The SMA was deployed as part of a transdisciplinary study with EU policy stakeholders of how EU policy may need to change to deliver sustainability commitments, particularly to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The paper outlines the concepts underlying SMA and its specific implementation using the FADN data. A key focus was on the interactions between crop and livestock systems and how this determines imported feedstuffs requirements, with environmental and other footprints beyond the EU. Examples of agricultural production systems performance are presented in terms of financial/efficiency, resource use (particularly the water footprint) and quantifies potential pressures on the environment. Benefits and limitations of the FADN dataset and the SMA outputs are discussed, highlighting the challenges of linking quantified pressures with environmental impacts. The paper concludes that the complexity of agriculture's interactions with economy and society means there is great need for conceptual frameworks, such as SMA, that can take multiple, non-equivalent, perspectives and that can be deployed with policy stakeholders despite generating uncomfortable knowledge.},
keywords = {common agricultural policy, Energy, FADN, food nexus, Societal metabolism, sustainability, Water},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The paper presents insights from carrying out a pan-EU sustainability assessment using Farm Accountancy Data Network (FADN) data (the old wine) with societal metabolism accounting (SMA) processes (the new bottles). The SMA was deployed as part of a transdisciplinary study with EU policy stakeholders of how EU policy may need to change to deliver sustainability commitments, particularly to the UN Sustainable Development Goals. The paper outlines the concepts underlying SMA and its specific implementation using the FADN data. A key focus was on the interactions between crop and livestock systems and how this determines imported feedstuffs requirements, with environmental and other footprints beyond the EU. Examples of agricultural production systems performance are presented in terms of financial/efficiency, resource use (particularly the water footprint) and quantifies potential pressures on the environment. Benefits and limitations of the FADN dataset and the SMA outputs are discussed, highlighting the challenges of linking quantified pressures with environmental impacts. The paper concludes that the complexity of agriculture's interactions with economy and society means there is great need for conceptual frameworks, such as SMA, that can take multiple, non-equivalent, perspectives and that can be deployed with policy stakeholders despite generating uncomfortable knowledge.
Energy systems are complex. Implications for science and for policy PhD Thesis
Felice, Louisa Jane Di
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2021.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Energy, EU Policy
@phdthesis{DiFelice2021a,
title = {Energy systems are complex. Implications for science and for policy},
author = {Louisa Jane Di Felice},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10803/671906},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-01-01},
pages = {195},
school = {Universitat Aut\`{o}noma de Barcelona},
abstract = {This thesis investigates the implications of complexity for the production of models of social-ecological systems and for the science-policy interface. I focus on energy policy in the European Union (EU), through case studies developed within the Horizon 2020 project MAGIC. The way I refer to complexity builds on the work of Robert Rosen, who defined a complex system as one which can be described in non-equivalent and non-reducible ways. This powerful definition, which I refer to as Rosennian (or relational) complexity, calls for deep reflections on the way scientific knowledge is used to inform our image of the world and how we act upon that image. It focuses on the role played by observers in perceiving systems and in modelling them, through devices that I refer to as narratives. Narratives allow reducing the information space of complex reality into a manageable storyline which can be used to guide action, establishing causal patterns across impredicative processes operating at different scales. As such, they are central both to science and to policymaking. Narratives cannot be true or false, only adequate or obsolete with respect to the perception of a system. Through a series of case studies, I develop the tools needed to describe energy systems across multiple scales, question whether narratives underpinning EU energy policy are adequate in addressing their concerns and inspect the role played by academia in shaping those narratives. The methodological implications of modelling energy systems at the science-policy interface are addressed through a case study of Catalonia's energy sector. Building on hierarchy theory, the region's energy system is described in structural terms and in functional ones, showing how a functional description is useful in guiding policy questions. By mapping nexus dimensions across hierarchical levels, this first case study provides the tools to generate nexus assessments in open and transparent ways. In the second case study, a collaboration with Zora Kovacic, I focus on energy security, one of the pillars of the EU's Energy Union. Inspecting the multiple definitions and dimensions connected with energy security in the academic literature, we argue that the ambiguity of the term is functional in policymaking and is not a matter to be solved with increased definitional clarity. Rather, ambiguity is embedded in complexity. This suggests that the production of definitions and indicators of energy security in academia may not be useful to policy. The third case study analyses the narratives surrounding electric vehicles in the EU. Policy narratives in EU documents are identified through a text analysis and mapped across hierarchical levels. A taxonomy to classify policy narratives is introduced, making the distinction between normative narratives, justification narratives and explanation narratives. Through a review of existing studies and reports, the quality of the constellation of narratives surrounding electric vehicles is inspected, focusing on the relationship between normative and justification narratives. Results show how this relationship is uncertain at best. Focusing on the role played by science in informing policy, they point to the need of recognising the way in which policy narratives affect and are affected by academic ones. The fourth and most recent case study is an expansion of the first one, presented here as exploratory work in progress. The energy metabolisms of Spain, Sweden and the EU are described through holarchies, including each branch of the energy system (electricity, heat, gas and fuels). This multi-scale mapping is used to discuss two issues that are central to EU energy policy: decarbonisation and externalisation. I question EU decarbonisation narratives and highlight uncomfortable knowledge regarding the reliance of the EU's energy sector on imports.},
keywords = {Complexity, Energy, EU Policy},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {phdthesis}
}
This thesis investigates the implications of complexity for the production of models of social-ecological systems and for the science-policy interface. I focus on energy policy in the European Union (EU), through case studies developed within the Horizon 2020 project MAGIC. The way I refer to complexity builds on the work of Robert Rosen, who defined a complex system as one which can be described in non-equivalent and non-reducible ways. This powerful definition, which I refer to as Rosennian (or relational) complexity, calls for deep reflections on the way scientific knowledge is used to inform our image of the world and how we act upon that image. It focuses on the role played by observers in perceiving systems and in modelling them, through devices that I refer to as narratives. Narratives allow reducing the information space of complex reality into a manageable storyline which can be used to guide action, establishing causal patterns across impredicative processes operating at different scales. As such, they are central both to science and to policymaking. Narratives cannot be true or false, only adequate or obsolete with respect to the perception of a system. Through a series of case studies, I develop the tools needed to describe energy systems across multiple scales, question whether narratives underpinning EU energy policy are adequate in addressing their concerns and inspect the role played by academia in shaping those narratives. The methodological implications of modelling energy systems at the science-policy interface are addressed through a case study of Catalonia's energy sector. Building on hierarchy theory, the region's energy system is described in structural terms and in functional ones, showing how a functional description is useful in guiding policy questions. By mapping nexus dimensions across hierarchical levels, this first case study provides the tools to generate nexus assessments in open and transparent ways. In the second case study, a collaboration with Zora Kovacic, I focus on energy security, one of the pillars of the EU's Energy Union. Inspecting the multiple definitions and dimensions connected with energy security in the academic literature, we argue that the ambiguity of the term is functional in policymaking and is not a matter to be solved with increased definitional clarity. Rather, ambiguity is embedded in complexity. This suggests that the production of definitions and indicators of energy security in academia may not be useful to policy. The third case study analyses the narratives surrounding electric vehicles in the EU. Policy narratives in EU documents are identified through a text analysis and mapped across hierarchical levels. A taxonomy to classify policy narratives is introduced, making the distinction between normative narratives, justification narratives and explanation narratives. Through a review of existing studies and reports, the quality of the constellation of narratives surrounding electric vehicles is inspected, focusing on the relationship between normative and justification narratives. Results show how this relationship is uncertain at best. Focusing on the role played by science in informing policy, they point to the need of recognising the way in which policy narratives affect and are affected by academic ones. The fourth and most recent case study is an expansion of the first one, presented here as exploratory work in progress. The energy metabolisms of Spain, Sweden and the EU are described through holarchies, including each branch of the energy system (electricity, heat, gas and fuels). This multi-scale mapping is used to discuss two issues that are central to EU energy policy: decarbonisation and externalisation. I question EU decarbonisation narratives and highlight uncomfortable knowledge regarding the reliance of the EU's energy sector on imports.
Isolated yet open: A metabolic analysis of Menorca Journal Article
Marcos-Valls, Alejandro; Kovacic, Zora; Giampietro, Mario; Kallis, Giorgos; Rieradevall, Joan
In: Science of The Total Environment, 738 , pp. 139221, 2020, ISSN: 00489697.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Energy, Human activities, Mediterranean islands, MuSIASEM, Socio-ecological metabolism, Water
@article{Marcos-Valls2020,
title = {Isolated yet open: A metabolic analysis of Menorca},
author = {Alejandro Marcos-Valls and Zora Kovacic and Mario Giampietro and Giorgos Kallis and Joan Rieradevall},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0048969720327388},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139221},
issn = {00489697},
year = {2020},
date = {2020-10-01},
journal = {Science of The Total Environment},
volume = {738},
pages = {139221},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Small islands are vulnerable to climate change, and at the same time contribute to local and global environmental problems with the intensification of tourist activities. Whereas there are many studies on the resource requirements or environmental impacts of small islands, there are few efforts to integrate information that is often analysed separately. Metabolic analysis, beyond quantifying biophysical flows, studies how society transforms these flows to reproduce the identity of the whole. This study applies the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach, to analyse the environmental and economic performance of different economic activities in the Mediterranean island of Menorca (Spain). The openness of the metabolic system (observed in the dependence on imports) and externalization of environmental impact are illustrated using the examples of the cheese and tourist industry. The results show that a higher economic performance in terms of value added is associated with activities in industry and services with a larger dependence on imports of “external resources” \textendash fuel for transportation, milk for cheese, seasonal workers and “paying capacity” of tourists. This dependence reduces local environmental pressures and also adaptation capacity, since decisions made in Menorca may have limited impact elsewhere. Local agriculture depends less on external resources but it is limited by the low economic productivity of land and labour. An integrated analysis of the relations between metabolic rates and densities of flows in the different compartments of the society provides a holistic picture of sustainability issues and can contribute to decision-making by avoiding partial information.},
keywords = {Energy, Human activities, Mediterranean islands, MuSIASEM, Socio-ecological metabolism, Water},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Small islands are vulnerable to climate change, and at the same time contribute to local and global environmental problems with the intensification of tourist activities. Whereas there are many studies on the resource requirements or environmental impacts of small islands, there are few efforts to integrate information that is often analysed separately. Metabolic analysis, beyond quantifying biophysical flows, studies how society transforms these flows to reproduce the identity of the whole. This study applies the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach, to analyse the environmental and economic performance of different economic activities in the Mediterranean island of Menorca (Spain). The openness of the metabolic system (observed in the dependence on imports) and externalization of environmental impact are illustrated using the examples of the cheese and tourist industry. The results show that a higher economic performance in terms of value added is associated with activities in industry and services with a larger dependence on imports of “external resources” – fuel for transportation, milk for cheese, seasonal workers and “paying capacity” of tourists. This dependence reduces local environmental pressures and also adaptation capacity, since decisions made in Menorca may have limited impact elsewhere. Local agriculture depends less on external resources but it is limited by the low economic productivity of land and labour. An integrated analysis of the relations between metabolic rates and densities of flows in the different compartments of the society provides a holistic picture of sustainability issues and can contribute to decision-making by avoiding partial information.
Characterizing the metabolic pattern of urban systems using MuSIASEM: The case of Barcelona Journal Article
Pérez-Sánchez, Laura; Giampietro, Mario; Velasco-Fernández, Raúl; Ripa, Maddalena
In: Energy Policy, 124 (March 2018), pp. 13–22, 2019, ISSN: 03014215.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cities, End-use matrix, Energy, MuSIASEM, Time allocation, Urban metabolism
@article{Perez-Sanchez2019,
title = {Characterizing the metabolic pattern of urban systems using MuSIASEM: The case of Barcelona},
author = {Laura P\'{e}rez-S\'{a}nchez and Mario Giampietro and Ra\'{u}l Velasco-Fern\'{a}ndez and Maddalena Ripa},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2018.09.028},
doi = {10.1016/j.enpol.2018.09.028},
issn = {03014215},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-01},
journal = {Energy Policy},
volume = {124},
number = {March 2018},
pages = {13--22},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
abstract = {The extreme degree of openness of contemporary urban systems with regard to both economy and population creates a serious challenge for the study of urban energy metabolism. A novel tool based on Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) is proposed to overcome these challenges. It consists of an end-use matrix, a coherent multi-level integrated characterization of the uses of different forms of energy carriers (electricity, heat, fuels) for the various tasks performed in the city, including private and public mobility, tourism, commercial and residential activities. The end-use matrix integrates quantitative data referring to different dimensions (i.e. energy, human activity, land use, value added) and hierarchical (economic sectors and functional elements at lower levels) and spatial scales (i.e. individual buildings, neighborhoods, and the city as a whole). The end-use matrix provides information on both extensive (flows) and intensive variables (flow/fund ratios or benchmarks). Benchmarks are important for policy-making and allow a meaningful comparison of energy performance across hierarchical levels within the urban system, and among different urban systems. The approach is illustrated for Barcelona, a global city characterized by an important service sector.},
keywords = {Cities, End-use matrix, Energy, MuSIASEM, Time allocation, Urban metabolism},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The extreme degree of openness of contemporary urban systems with regard to both economy and population creates a serious challenge for the study of urban energy metabolism. A novel tool based on Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) is proposed to overcome these challenges. It consists of an end-use matrix, a coherent multi-level integrated characterization of the uses of different forms of energy carriers (electricity, heat, fuels) for the various tasks performed in the city, including private and public mobility, tourism, commercial and residential activities. The end-use matrix integrates quantitative data referring to different dimensions (i.e. energy, human activity, land use, value added) and hierarchical (economic sectors and functional elements at lower levels) and spatial scales (i.e. individual buildings, neighborhoods, and the city as a whole). The end-use matrix provides information on both extensive (flows) and intensive variables (flow/fund ratios or benchmarks). Benchmarks are important for policy-making and allow a meaningful comparison of energy performance across hierarchical levels within the urban system, and among different urban systems. The approach is illustrated for Barcelona, a global city characterized by an important service sector.
Studies in environmental, production and transport economics PhD Thesis
Fiorito, Giancarlo
Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, 2018, ISBN: 9788449078804.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Carbon tax, Energy, Energy capital substitution
@phdthesis{Fiorito2018,
title = {Studies in environmental, production and transport economics},
author = {Giancarlo Fiorito},
url = {http://hdl.handle.net/10803/462767},
isbn = {9788449078804},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-01-01},
booktitle = {Studies in environmental, production and transport economics},
pages = {66},
publisher = {Universitat Aut\`{o}noma de Barcelona},
school = {Universitat Aut\`{o}noma de Barcelona},
abstract = {This PhD thesis uses statistics and econometric modelling to explore in empirical terms three energy and environmental economics issues. The first study approaches the energy-economy connection in a broad perspective: employing energy, population and income data for 133 countries over four decades, it provides a graphical examination of energy intensity combining static and dynamic analyses to assess the usefulness of this popular indicator. The use of Gapminder graphical tool allows the visualization of four variables at the time so as to unveil long term patterns characterizing energy and GDP data. The article conclusions answer negatively to the title's question. The second study enters into production. With a focus on inputs, capital/energy substitutability is investigated by estimating the production function of the manufacturing sector for seven OECD countries. Using a four-input translog specification, input substitution is quantified by the cross-price elasticity of substitution. This traditional economics treatment provides updated figures about the technological limits in which economic systems have to operate during times of energy scarcity, environmental constraints and resource price volatility. One more proof that (cheap) energy and raw materials are essential inputs in production, as we know it and, thus, the world cannot get along without natural resources. The last chapter concerns an urgent issue for both human health and the environment: the ever-increasing emissions form the transport sector, focusing on road vehicles. After estimating consumer demand for both traditional and widely-available eco-fuels, LPG and methane, I simulate the effects of the introducing a carbon tax in Italy on both fuel/vehicle choice and emissions. The results indicate a positive responsiveness of consumer toward LPG and methane, leading to significant CO2 reduction; an essential factor being the diffusion of their refueling infrastructure. All the studies, are published in scientific journals, and they use original and verifiable data and calculation procedures, to contribute to relevant and new insights.},
keywords = {Carbon tax, Energy, Energy capital substitution},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {phdthesis}
}
This PhD thesis uses statistics and econometric modelling to explore in empirical terms three energy and environmental economics issues. The first study approaches the energy-economy connection in a broad perspective: employing energy, population and income data for 133 countries over four decades, it provides a graphical examination of energy intensity combining static and dynamic analyses to assess the usefulness of this popular indicator. The use of Gapminder graphical tool allows the visualization of four variables at the time so as to unveil long term patterns characterizing energy and GDP data. The article conclusions answer negatively to the title's question. The second study enters into production. With a focus on inputs, capital/energy substitutability is investigated by estimating the production function of the manufacturing sector for seven OECD countries. Using a four-input translog specification, input substitution is quantified by the cross-price elasticity of substitution. This traditional economics treatment provides updated figures about the technological limits in which economic systems have to operate during times of energy scarcity, environmental constraints and resource price volatility. One more proof that (cheap) energy and raw materials are essential inputs in production, as we know it and, thus, the world cannot get along without natural resources. The last chapter concerns an urgent issue for both human health and the environment: the ever-increasing emissions form the transport sector, focusing on road vehicles. After estimating consumer demand for both traditional and widely-available eco-fuels, LPG and methane, I simulate the effects of the introducing a carbon tax in Italy on both fuel/vehicle choice and emissions. The results indicate a positive responsiveness of consumer toward LPG and methane, leading to significant CO2 reduction; an essential factor being the diffusion of their refueling infrastructure. All the studies, are published in scientific journals, and they use original and verifiable data and calculation procedures, to contribute to relevant and new insights.
Probing uncertainty levels of electrification in informal urban settlements: A case from South Africa Journal Article
Kovacic, Zora; Smit, Suzanne; Musango, Josephine Kaviti; Brent, Alan Colin; Giampietro, Mario
In: Habitat International, 56 , pp. 212–221, 2016, ISSN: 01973975.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Cities, Complexity, Energy, Slums, Upgrading, Urban metabolism
@article{Kovacic2016,
title = {Probing uncertainty levels of electrification in informal urban settlements: A case from South Africa},
author = {Zora Kovacic and Suzanne Smit and Josephine Kaviti Musango and Alan Colin Brent and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0197397515302356},
doi = {10.1016/j.habitatint.2016.06.002},
issn = {01973975},
year = {2016},
date = {2016-08-01},
journal = {Habitat International},
volume = {56},
pages = {212--221},
abstract = {textcopyright 2016 Elsevier Ltd. This paper assesses the different levels of uncertainty that affect the analysis of informal urban settlements and the implementation of upgrading policies, with a specific focus on electrification. The rapid growth of informal settlements in the cities of the Global South poses serious challenges to the management of energy systems, particularly when it comes to the electricity grid. Informal urban settlements are characterized by the lack of urban planning and low or absent provision of public services. Exponential population growth increases the complexity of urban planning. An inadequate understanding of uncertainty can undermine the effectiveness of informal settlement upgrading and deepen social inequalities. Based on the case study of the Enkanini settlement in Stellenbosch, South Africa, this paper probes three levels of uncertainty: (i) methodological uncertainty associated with the challenge of estimating energy demand and demographic changes, (ii) technical uncertainty associated with the expansion of the electric grid and securing revenues, and (iii) epistemological uncertainty associated with the definition of the relevant problems and pertinent solutions for informal settlements. The paper highlights how the focus of technical uncertainty displaces the debate on the socio-political challenges of informal settlement upgrading.},
keywords = {Cities, Complexity, Energy, Slums, Upgrading, Urban metabolism},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
textcopyright 2016 Elsevier Ltd. This paper assesses the different levels of uncertainty that affect the analysis of informal urban settlements and the implementation of upgrading policies, with a specific focus on electrification. The rapid growth of informal settlements in the cities of the Global South poses serious challenges to the management of energy systems, particularly when it comes to the electricity grid. Informal urban settlements are characterized by the lack of urban planning and low or absent provision of public services. Exponential population growth increases the complexity of urban planning. An inadequate understanding of uncertainty can undermine the effectiveness of informal settlement upgrading and deepen social inequalities. Based on the case study of the Enkanini settlement in Stellenbosch, South Africa, this paper probes three levels of uncertainty: (i) methodological uncertainty associated with the challenge of estimating energy demand and demographic changes, (ii) technical uncertainty associated with the expansion of the electric grid and securing revenues, and (iii) epistemological uncertainty associated with the definition of the relevant problems and pertinent solutions for informal settlements. The paper highlights how the focus of technical uncertainty displaces the debate on the socio-political challenges of informal settlement upgrading.
Empty promises or promising futures? The case of smart grids Journal Article
Kovacic, Zora; Giampietro, Mario
In: Energy, 93 , pp. 67–74, 2015, ISSN: 03605442.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Complexity, Electricity, Energy, Multi-scale, Quality assessment, Uncertainty
@article{Kovacic2015a,
title = {Empty promises or promising futures? The case of smart grids},
author = {Zora Kovacic and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544215012141},
doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2015.08.116},
issn = {03605442},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-12-01},
journal = {Energy},
volume = {93},
pages = {67--74},
abstract = {The goal of this paper is to disentangle the ambiguity associated with the term smart grids. A plurality of definitions, envisioned purposes and future visions are associated with smart grids, inclusding access to electricity as a human right, t he decentralization of the energy system and the changing role of consumers, sustainability issues, energy security, and climate change. In this context, it is very difficult to assess the potential of smart grids, given the high uncertainty associated with the many challenges that this technology is supposed to face. We apply the analytical tools of complexity theory to (1) identify the different definition of smart grid that are associated with different future visions about their performance; and (2) provide a critical appraisal of these future visions in relation to the stated goals and social contexts in which they are generated. As a result, we identify the contradictions that emerge from different definitions of smart grids, the issues that are neglected and the different levels of uncertainty involved.},
keywords = {Complexity, Electricity, Energy, Multi-scale, Quality assessment, Uncertainty},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The goal of this paper is to disentangle the ambiguity associated with the term smart grids. A plurality of definitions, envisioned purposes and future visions are associated with smart grids, inclusding access to electricity as a human right, t he decentralization of the energy system and the changing role of consumers, sustainability issues, energy security, and climate change. In this context, it is very difficult to assess the potential of smart grids, given the high uncertainty associated with the many challenges that this technology is supposed to face. We apply the analytical tools of complexity theory to (1) identify the different definition of smart grid that are associated with different future visions about their performance; and (2) provide a critical appraisal of these future visions in relation to the stated goals and social contexts in which they are generated. As a result, we identify the contradictions that emerge from different definitions of smart grids, the issues that are neglected and the different levels of uncertainty involved.
The energy metabolism of China and India between 1971 and 2010: Studying the bifurcation Journal Article
Velasco-Fernández, Raúl; Ramos-Martín, Jesus; Giampietro, Mario
In: Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 41 (1), pp. 1052–1066, 2015, ISSN: 13640321.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: China, Energy, India, Multi-scale integrated analysis, Societal metabolism, sustainability
@article{Velasco-Fernandez2015,
title = {The energy metabolism of China and India between 1971 and 2010: Studying the bifurcation},
author = {Ra\'{u}l Velasco-Fern\'{a}ndez and Jesus Ramos-Mart\'{i}n and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1364032114007515},
doi = {10.1016/j.rser.2014.08.065},
issn = {13640321},
year = {2015},
date = {2015-01-01},
journal = {Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews},
volume = {41},
number = {1},
pages = {1052--1066},
abstract = {This paper presents a comparison of the changes in the energetic metabolic pattern of China and India, the two most populated countries in the world, with two economies undergoing an important economic transition. The comparison of the changes in the energetic metabolic pattern has the scope to characterize and explain a bifurcation in their evolutionary path in the recent years, using the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach. The analysis shows an impressive transformation of China's energy metabolism determined by the joining of the WTO in 2001. Since then, China became the largest factory of the world with a generalized capitalization of all sectors, especially the industrial sector, boosting economic labor productivity as well as total energy consumption. India, on the contrary, lags behind when considering these factors. Looking at changes in the household sector (energy metabolism associated with final consumption) in the case of China, the energetic metabolic rate (EMR) soared in the last decade, also thanks to a reduced growth of population, whereas in India it remained stagnant for the last 40 years. This analysis indicates a big challenge for India for the next decade. In the light of the data analyzed both countries will continue to require strong injections of technical capital requiring a continuous increase in their total energy consumption. When considering the size of these economies it is easy to guess that this may induce a dramatic increase in the price of energy, an event that at the moment will penalize much more the chance of a quick economic development of India.},
keywords = {China, Energy, India, Multi-scale integrated analysis, Societal metabolism, sustainability},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This paper presents a comparison of the changes in the energetic metabolic pattern of China and India, the two most populated countries in the world, with two economies undergoing an important economic transition. The comparison of the changes in the energetic metabolic pattern has the scope to characterize and explain a bifurcation in their evolutionary path in the recent years, using the Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) approach. The analysis shows an impressive transformation of China's energy metabolism determined by the joining of the WTO in 2001. Since then, China became the largest factory of the world with a generalized capitalization of all sectors, especially the industrial sector, boosting economic labor productivity as well as total energy consumption. India, on the contrary, lags behind when considering these factors. Looking at changes in the household sector (energy metabolism associated with final consumption) in the case of China, the energetic metabolic rate (EMR) soared in the last decade, also thanks to a reduced growth of population, whereas in India it remained stagnant for the last 40 years. This analysis indicates a big challenge for India for the next decade. In the light of the data analyzed both countries will continue to require strong injections of technical capital requiring a continuous increase in their total energy consumption. When considering the size of these economies it is easy to guess that this may induce a dramatic increase in the price of energy, an event that at the moment will penalize much more the chance of a quick economic development of India.
AGAUR Grant ID 2017 SGR 230 / Copyright © 2023