Publications

@article{DiFelice2018,

title = {Deep Decarbonisation from a Biophysical Perspective: GHG Emissions of a Renewable Electricity Transformation in the EU},

author = {Louisa Di Felice and Maddalena Ripa and Mario Giampietro},

url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/10/3685},

doi = {10.3390/su10103685},

issn = {2071-1050},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-10-01},

journal = {Sustainability},

volume = {10},

number = {10},

pages = {3685},

publisher = {MDPI AG},

abstract = {In light of climate change and security concerns, decarbonisation has become a priority for industrialised countries. In the European Union (EU), decarbonisation scenarios used to support decision-making predict a steady decrease in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, mostly driven by changes in production mixes and improvements in efficiency. In the EU's decarbonisation pathways, the power sector plays a large role, reaching zero emissions by 2050. From a biophysical perspective, decarbonisation becomes not just a matter of replacing carbon-intensive with carbon-neutral electricity flows, but also a matter of building and maintaining new infrastructure (funds) which, in turn, is associated with GHG emissions. By not accounting for the emissions associated with funds, particularly those required to increase grid flexibility, scenarios used to inform decarbonisation narratives in the EU are missing a key part of the picture. We show that a rapid and deep decarbonisation of the EU's power sector through a production-side transition between the years 2020 and 2050 leads to cumulative emissions of the order of 21\textendash25 Gt of CO2 equivalent, within a range of approximately 35\textendash45%. The results are obtained by modelling two decarbonisation pathways where grid flexibility increases either through storage or through curtailment. The analysis suggests that scenarios informing decarbonisation policies in the EU are optimistic and may lead to a narrow focus on sustainable production transformations. This minimises the perceived urgency of reducing overall energy consumption to stay within safe carbon budgets.},

keywords = {Bio-economics, Curtailment, Energy transition, Grid flexibility, Modelling, Science-policy interface, Storage},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{Scheidel2012,

title = {Energy transitions and the global land rush: Ultimate drivers and persistent consequences},

author = {Arnim Scheidel and Alevgul H. Sorman},

url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0959378011002068},

doi = {10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2011.12.005},

issn = {09593780},

year  = {2012},

date = {2012-08-01},

journal = {Global Environmental Change},

volume = {22},

number = {3},

pages = {588--595},

publisher = {Pergamon},

abstract = {While the recent emergence of a global land rush has initiated large debates and conflicts over the use and access to land, further investigation into the underlying drivers is required to enhance the understanding of the potential trajectories of the land grab phenomenon. This paper takes a biophysical perspective and explores how declining fossil stocks and a global transition towards renewable energies ultimately drive the land rush. The paper addresses, in qualitative terms, how societal needs for land change with different patterns of societal energy metabolism. The potential spatial expansions of renewables are illustrated in quantitative terms, based on the power density concept and energy provision forecasts for the year 2020. The transition from an energy system based on fossils stocks, with high power densities, to one based on renewables, with low power densities, drastically boosts societal demand for land. This drives the land rush directly through land acquisitions for the expansion of energy systems. The energy transition also drives the land rush indirectly, in particular through food security threats motivated by the growing competition over farmland uses and changes in crop supply. Although currently fossil stocks are still relatively abundant, future declines are expected to trigger the demand for land to even greater extents. Given the inevitability of the energy transition, we believe that the land rush will have persistence, bearing long-term consequences for land use and struggles over access to land. textcopyright 2012 Elsevier Ltd.},

keywords = {Energetic metabolism of societies, Energy transition, Land grabbing, Land rush, Peak oil},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}