Publications
Securing fuel demand with unconventional oils: A metabolic perspective Journal Article
Manfroni, Michele; Bukkens, S. G. F.; Giampietro, M.
In: Energy, 261 , 2022, ISSN: 03605442.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Consumption patterns; Fuel demand; Multiple dimensions; Multiple scale; Novel methodology; Oil product; Oil sectors; Performance; Societal metabolism; Unconventional oil, Economic and social effects; Fossil fuels; Metabolism, Energy security, European Union; exploitation; fuel; fuel consumption; metabolism; methodology; oil, United States
@article{Manfroni2022,
title = {Securing fuel demand with unconventional oils: A metabolic perspective},
author = {Michele Manfroni and S. G. F. Bukkens and M. Giampietro},
url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85138087366&doi=10.1016%2fj.energy.2022.125256&partnerID=40&md5=0c555992ee55154baebb4dcb615bdbc4},
doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2022.125256},
issn = {03605442},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-01-01},
journal = {Energy},
volume = {261},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
abstract = {A novel methodology is presented for assessing the performance of the oil sector across multiple scales and dimensions of analysis. It focuses on the potential impact of the growing share of unconventional oils in the crude supply mix on energy security through an analysis of the societal energy metabolism. Applying our method at the global level, we find that at the current fuel consumption pattern, an increased exploitation of unconventional oils will cause relative shortages of specific refinery products. The imbalances would be more pronounced if the global fuel consumption pattern would change toward that of the US or the EU. In the former case, gasoline supply would become critical, in the latter diesel. Contrasting performances were found on the selected environmental, technical, or economic criteria for the different simulations analyzed. We conclude that it is of paramount importance to study the oil sector as an integral part of society. In the metabolic view, there are no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ primary energy sources (taken in isolation), but a series of trade-offs among various dimensions of performance. Whether or not unconventional oils can provide energy security depends on the overall feasibility, viability, and desirability of the energy metabolic pattern of society. © 2022 The Authors},
keywords = {Consumption patterns; Fuel demand; Multiple dimensions; Multiple scale; Novel methodology; Oil product; Oil sectors; Performance; Societal metabolism; Unconventional oil, Economic and social effects; Fossil fuels; Metabolism, Energy security, European Union; exploitation; fuel; fuel consumption; metabolism; methodology; oil, United States},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
A novel methodology is presented for assessing the performance of the oil sector across multiple scales and dimensions of analysis. It focuses on the potential impact of the growing share of unconventional oils in the crude supply mix on energy security through an analysis of the societal energy metabolism. Applying our method at the global level, we find that at the current fuel consumption pattern, an increased exploitation of unconventional oils will cause relative shortages of specific refinery products. The imbalances would be more pronounced if the global fuel consumption pattern would change toward that of the US or the EU. In the former case, gasoline supply would become critical, in the latter diesel. Contrasting performances were found on the selected environmental, technical, or economic criteria for the different simulations analyzed. We conclude that it is of paramount importance to study the oil sector as an integral part of society. In the metabolic view, there are no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ primary energy sources (taken in isolation), but a series of trade-offs among various dimensions of performance. Whether or not unconventional oils can provide energy security depends on the overall feasibility, viability, and desirability of the energy metabolic pattern of society. © 2022 The Authors
Complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity: Implications for European Union energy governance Journal Article
Kovacic, Zora; Felice, Louisa Jane Di
In: Energy Research & Social Science, 53 , pp. 159–169, 2019, ISSN: 22146296.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Definition, Energy security, Indicators, Policy-making, Science-policy interface
@article{Kovacic2019,
title = {Complexity, uncertainty and ambiguity: Implications for European Union energy governance},
author = {Zora Kovacic and Louisa Jane Di Felice},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S221462961831137X},
doi = {10.1016/j.erss.2019.03.005},
issn = {22146296},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-07-01},
journal = {Energy Research & Social Science},
volume = {53},
pages = {159--169},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Energy security is an ambiguous concept. Growing academic interest has aimed at defining, conceptualising and measuring energy security, often through indicators. Energy policy in the European Union (EU) is not concerned with energy security's ambiguous conceptualisation, nor does it use energy security indicators, but it refers consistently to security as one of its primary aims. In this paper, by analysing the use of energy security both in scientific publications and in EU policy, we argue that the ambiguity of the concept plays a function in the policy process and is only seen as a problem in the academic literature. Building on the uncertainty literature, we conceptualise ambiguity as the type of uncertainty that emerges from complexity. Complexity leads to the existence of multiple representations of a system, which may serve different purposes in the policy process, generating ambiguity. Uncertainty is mobilised to frame energy policy as a matter of security. This has implications for the science-policy interface: on one hand, the analysis suggests that science's aim of providing holistic assessments and clarifications may not serve its desired instrumental purpose in policymaking; on the other, ambiguity allows for materially ineffective policy measures to persist in the name of energy security.},
keywords = {Definition, Energy security, Indicators, Policy-making, Science-policy interface},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Energy security is an ambiguous concept. Growing academic interest has aimed at defining, conceptualising and measuring energy security, often through indicators. Energy policy in the European Union (EU) is not concerned with energy security's ambiguous conceptualisation, nor does it use energy security indicators, but it refers consistently to security as one of its primary aims. In this paper, by analysing the use of energy security both in scientific publications and in EU policy, we argue that the ambiguity of the concept plays a function in the policy process and is only seen as a problem in the academic literature. Building on the uncertainty literature, we conceptualise ambiguity as the type of uncertainty that emerges from complexity. Complexity leads to the existence of multiple representations of a system, which may serve different purposes in the policy process, generating ambiguity. Uncertainty is mobilised to frame energy policy as a matter of security. This has implications for the science-policy interface: on one hand, the analysis suggests that science's aim of providing holistic assessments and clarifications may not serve its desired instrumental purpose in policymaking; on the other, ambiguity allows for materially ineffective policy measures to persist in the name of energy security.
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