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Securing fuel demand with unconventional oils: A metabolic perspective Journal Article
Manfroni, Michele; Bukkens, S. G. F.; Giampietro, M.
In: Energy, 261 , 2022, ISSN: 03605442.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Consumption patterns; Fuel demand; Multiple dimensions; Multiple scale; Novel methodology; Oil product; Oil sectors; Performance; Societal metabolism; Unconventional oil, Economic and social effects; Fossil fuels; Metabolism, Energy security, European Union; exploitation; fuel; fuel consumption; metabolism; methodology; oil, United States
@article{Manfroni2022,
title = {Securing fuel demand with unconventional oils: A metabolic perspective},
author = {Michele Manfroni and S. G. F. Bukkens and M. Giampietro},
url = {https://www.scopus.com/inward/record.uri?eid=2-s2.0-85138087366&doi=10.1016%2fj.energy.2022.125256&partnerID=40&md5=0c555992ee55154baebb4dcb615bdbc4},
doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2022.125256},
issn = {03605442},
year = {2022},
date = {2022-01-01},
journal = {Energy},
volume = {261},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
abstract = {A novel methodology is presented for assessing the performance of the oil sector across multiple scales and dimensions of analysis. It focuses on the potential impact of the growing share of unconventional oils in the crude supply mix on energy security through an analysis of the societal energy metabolism. Applying our method at the global level, we find that at the current fuel consumption pattern, an increased exploitation of unconventional oils will cause relative shortages of specific refinery products. The imbalances would be more pronounced if the global fuel consumption pattern would change toward that of the US or the EU. In the former case, gasoline supply would become critical, in the latter diesel. Contrasting performances were found on the selected environmental, technical, or economic criteria for the different simulations analyzed. We conclude that it is of paramount importance to study the oil sector as an integral part of society. In the metabolic view, there are no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ primary energy sources (taken in isolation), but a series of trade-offs among various dimensions of performance. Whether or not unconventional oils can provide energy security depends on the overall feasibility, viability, and desirability of the energy metabolic pattern of society. © 2022 The Authors},
keywords = {Consumption patterns; Fuel demand; Multiple dimensions; Multiple scale; Novel methodology; Oil product; Oil sectors; Performance; Societal metabolism; Unconventional oil, Economic and social effects; Fossil fuels; Metabolism, Energy security, European Union; exploitation; fuel; fuel consumption; metabolism; methodology; oil, United States},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
A novel methodology is presented for assessing the performance of the oil sector across multiple scales and dimensions of analysis. It focuses on the potential impact of the growing share of unconventional oils in the crude supply mix on energy security through an analysis of the societal energy metabolism. Applying our method at the global level, we find that at the current fuel consumption pattern, an increased exploitation of unconventional oils will cause relative shortages of specific refinery products. The imbalances would be more pronounced if the global fuel consumption pattern would change toward that of the US or the EU. In the former case, gasoline supply would become critical, in the latter diesel. Contrasting performances were found on the selected environmental, technical, or economic criteria for the different simulations analyzed. We conclude that it is of paramount importance to study the oil sector as an integral part of society. In the metabolic view, there are no ‘good’ or ‘bad’ primary energy sources (taken in isolation), but a series of trade-offs among various dimensions of performance. Whether or not unconventional oils can provide energy security depends on the overall feasibility, viability, and desirability of the energy metabolic pattern of society. © 2022 The Authors
AGAUR Grant ID 2017 SGR 230 / Copyright © 2023