Publications
The declining performance of the oil sector: Implications for global climate change mitigation Journal Article
Manfroni, Michele; Bukkens, Sandra G. F.; Giampietro, Mario
In: Applied Energy, 298 , pp. 117210, 2021, ISSN: 03062619.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Climate change mitigation, CO2 emissions, Fossil transition, Oil depletion, Relational analysis, Unconventional oils
@article{Manfroni2021,
title = {The declining performance of the oil sector: Implications for global climate change mitigation},
author = {Michele Manfroni and Sandra G. F. Bukkens and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0306261921006346},
doi = {10.1016/j.apenergy.2021.117210},
issn = {03062619},
year = {2021},
date = {2021-09-01},
journal = {Applied Energy},
volume = {298},
pages = {117210},
abstract = {This article presents a relational analysis of the performance of the petroleum sector in the context of climate change mitigation. The oil sector is described as a complex network of transformations carried out by structural and functional elements, exploiting different types of crude oils. Energy carrier requirements and emissions of viable sequential pathways of extraction and refining are assessed and scaled across different levels of organization, using the concept of metabolic processor. Based on the analysis of seventy-one oil fields around the world - about 25% of global production - we provide a diagnostic analysis of the current state and explore possible scenarios simulating the progressive aging of conventional oil sources and an increasing exploitation of unconventional crudes. Results show how future oil exploitation will be more energy intensive, entailing an increase of emissions per barrel in the range of 6\textendash26% over the baseline, depending on the simulation. Under the existing policy frameworks and international pledges, this increase will translate into an amount of extra CO2 comparable to entire European economic sectors. Implications of our findings for future energy policies are discussed and the need to complement Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with more robust methodologies is emphasized. It is concluded that the declining performance of the oil sector could potentially undermine the plausibility of global low-carbon aspirations.},
keywords = {Climate change mitigation, CO2 emissions, Fossil transition, Oil depletion, Relational analysis, Unconventional oils},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
This article presents a relational analysis of the performance of the petroleum sector in the context of climate change mitigation. The oil sector is described as a complex network of transformations carried out by structural and functional elements, exploiting different types of crude oils. Energy carrier requirements and emissions of viable sequential pathways of extraction and refining are assessed and scaled across different levels of organization, using the concept of metabolic processor. Based on the analysis of seventy-one oil fields around the world - about 25% of global production - we provide a diagnostic analysis of the current state and explore possible scenarios simulating the progressive aging of conventional oil sources and an increasing exploitation of unconventional crudes. Results show how future oil exploitation will be more energy intensive, entailing an increase of emissions per barrel in the range of 6–26% over the baseline, depending on the simulation. Under the existing policy frameworks and international pledges, this increase will translate into an amount of extra CO2 comparable to entire European economic sectors. Implications of our findings for future energy policies are discussed and the need to complement Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) with more robust methodologies is emphasized. It is concluded that the declining performance of the oil sector could potentially undermine the plausibility of global low-carbon aspirations.
Relational analysis of the resource nexus in arid land crop production Journal Article
Cabello, Violeta; Renner, A.; Giampietro, M.
In: Advances in Water Resources, 130 (January), pp. 258–269, 2019, ISSN: 03091708.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Metabolic processor, Multi-functionality, Nexus networks, Relational analysis, Water-energy-food nexus
@article{Cabello2019,
title = {Relational analysis of the resource nexus in arid land crop production},
author = {Violeta Cabello and A. Renner and M. Giampietro},
doi = {10.1016/j.advwatres.2019.06.014},
issn = {03091708},
year = {2019},
date = {2019-01-01},
journal = {Advances in Water Resources},
volume = {130},
number = {January},
pages = {258--269},
publisher = {Elsevier Ltd},
abstract = {While a large number of descriptive studies have delineated the interlinkages between water, food and energy resources in the last decade, there is still need for systematic conceptualization of resource nexus interconnections. This paper proposes a theory of relational analysis of the nexus based on the analytical concept of nexus networks. A taxonomy of nexus interconnections, detailing sequential and hierarchical connections, is characterized between and amongst the technosphere and biosphere. We illustrate the use of a novel diagnostic tool with regard to its ability to integrate macro-, meso- and microscale drivers of nexus problems. We apply this framework to problems generated by intensive crop production for exportation in an arid landscape (driven by external markets) and sustainable management of water resources (driven by public policies) in a southern Spanish region. We elucidate interconnected causal mechanisms for groundwater overexploitation and profile different social-ecological patterns on a spatially-explicit basis. The proposed approach is capable of accounting for the water-energy-food resource nexus in an integrated and multi-level fashion, addressing the tensions generated by both multi-functionality and resource entanglement in complex social-ecological systems.},
keywords = {Metabolic processor, Multi-functionality, Nexus networks, Relational analysis, Water-energy-food nexus},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
While a large number of descriptive studies have delineated the interlinkages between water, food and energy resources in the last decade, there is still need for systematic conceptualization of resource nexus interconnections. This paper proposes a theory of relational analysis of the nexus based on the analytical concept of nexus networks. A taxonomy of nexus interconnections, detailing sequential and hierarchical connections, is characterized between and amongst the technosphere and biosphere. We illustrate the use of a novel diagnostic tool with regard to its ability to integrate macro-, meso- and microscale drivers of nexus problems. We apply this framework to problems generated by intensive crop production for exportation in an arid landscape (driven by external markets) and sustainable management of water resources (driven by public policies) in a southern Spanish region. We elucidate interconnected causal mechanisms for groundwater overexploitation and profile different social-ecological patterns on a spatially-explicit basis. The proposed approach is capable of accounting for the water-energy-food resource nexus in an integrated and multi-level fashion, addressing the tensions generated by both multi-functionality and resource entanglement in complex social-ecological systems.
Perception and Representation of the Resource Nexus at the Interface between Society and the Natural Environment Journal Article
Giampietro, Mario
In: Sustainability, 10 (7), pp. 2545, 2018, ISSN: 2071-1050.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Buzzword, Complex systems, Metabolic pattern, Relational analysis, Resource nexus, Semiotic process, Social-ecological system
@article{Giampietro2018a,
title = {Perception and Representation of the Resource Nexus at the Interface between Society and the Natural Environment},
author = {Mario Giampietro},
url = {http://www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/10/7/2545},
doi = {10.3390/su10072545},
issn = {2071-1050},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-07-01},
journal = {Sustainability},
volume = {10},
number = {7},
pages = {2545},
abstract = {Recent years have seen an explosion of interest in the resource nexus. This has created the co-existence of different understandings and uses of the concept. In this regard, experiences in the EU H2020 project ‘Moving towards adaptive governance in complexity: Informing nexus security' are consistent with findings reported in the literature: (i) The inconvenient message of the nexus is difficult to get across, it being incompatible with the currently dominant rosy narratives about sustainability. Indeed, from a historic perspective, the nexus can be seen as a revival of the ideological fight between cornucopians and neo-Malthusians; (ii) Silo structures in existing institutions are a problem for the governance of the nexus, and so is the resulting reductionist strategy of addressing and fixing one issue at the time; (iii) Scientific inquiry is currently not providing the quality inputs needed for a meaningful discussion of the resource nexus. Entanglement of resource flows is rooted in the complex metabolic pattern of social-ecological systems, the analysis of which requires a complex systems approach and relational analysis. Contemporary reductionist models simply make the nexus invisible to the analyst.},
keywords = {Buzzword, Complex systems, Metabolic pattern, Relational analysis, Resource nexus, Semiotic process, Social-ecological system},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Recent years have seen an explosion of interest in the resource nexus. This has created the co-existence of different understandings and uses of the concept. In this regard, experiences in the EU H2020 project ‘Moving towards adaptive governance in complexity: Informing nexus security' are consistent with findings reported in the literature: (i) The inconvenient message of the nexus is difficult to get across, it being incompatible with the currently dominant rosy narratives about sustainability. Indeed, from a historic perspective, the nexus can be seen as a revival of the ideological fight between cornucopians and neo-Malthusians; (ii) Silo structures in existing institutions are a problem for the governance of the nexus, and so is the resulting reductionist strategy of addressing and fixing one issue at the time; (iii) Scientific inquiry is currently not providing the quality inputs needed for a meaningful discussion of the resource nexus. Entanglement of resource flows is rooted in the complex metabolic pattern of social-ecological systems, the analysis of which requires a complex systems approach and relational analysis. Contemporary reductionist models simply make the nexus invisible to the analyst.
Relational analysis of the oil and gas sector of Mexico: Implications for Mexico's energy reform Journal Article
González-López, Rafael; Giampietro, Mario
In: Energy, 154 , pp. 403–414, 2018, ISSN: 03605442.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: energy system, Integrated assessment, Mexico's Energy Reform, MuSIASEM, oil and gas sector, Relational analysis
@article{Gonzalez-Lopez2018,
title = {Relational analysis of the oil and gas sector of Mexico: Implications for Mexico's energy reform},
author = {Rafael Gonz\'{a}lez-L\'{o}pez and Mario Giampietro},
url = {https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0360544218307503},
doi = {10.1016/j.energy.2018.04.134},
issn = {03605442},
year = {2018},
date = {2018-07-01},
journal = {Energy},
volume = {154},
pages = {403--414},
abstract = {textcopyright 2018 Elsevier Ltd This paper describes a novel tool-kit to analyze energy systems in relation to the bio-economic and environmental performance of society. It is illustrated with data from the oil and gas sector of Mexico. The approach combines relational analysis (as developed in theoretical biology) and Multi-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM). It integrates two non-equivalent views of the functioning of the oil and gas system starting from the identification and description of the relations between functional and structural elements. The metabolic pattern of the energy system is described as a sequential pathway generated by different functional elements (e.g., extraction, refining, transportation), each of which is made up of different structural elements (e.g., plants adopting different extraction techniques, diverse types of refineries, different methods of transportation), and operating at a given level of openness (imports and exports). The relations found over the elements of the energy system are described both in functional terms (what/why) and in spatial terms (where/how). The policy relevance of the information generated is discussed in relation to the Mexican Energy Reform.},
keywords = {energy system, Integrated assessment, Mexico's Energy Reform, MuSIASEM, oil and gas sector, Relational analysis},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
textcopyright 2018 Elsevier Ltd This paper describes a novel tool-kit to analyze energy systems in relation to the bio-economic and environmental performance of society. It is illustrated with data from the oil and gas sector of Mexico. The approach combines relational analysis (as developed in theoretical biology) and Multi-Scale Integrated Assessment of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM). It integrates two non-equivalent views of the functioning of the oil and gas system starting from the identification and description of the relations between functional and structural elements. The metabolic pattern of the energy system is described as a sequential pathway generated by different functional elements (e.g., extraction, refining, transportation), each of which is made up of different structural elements (e.g., plants adopting different extraction techniques, diverse types of refineries, different methods of transportation), and operating at a given level of openness (imports and exports). The relations found over the elements of the energy system are described both in functional terms (what/why) and in spatial terms (where/how). The policy relevance of the information generated is discussed in relation to the Mexican Energy Reform.
Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Charcoal Production in Complex Social-Ecological Systems Journal Article
González-López, Rafael; Giampietro, Mario
In: Frontiers in Environmental Science, 5 , pp. 54, 2017, ISSN: 2296-665X.
Abstract | Links | BibTeX | Tags: Charcoal, Metabolic pattern, MuSIASEM, Relational analysis, Social-ecological system
@article{Gonzalez-Lopez2017,
title = {Multi-Scale Integrated Analysis of Charcoal Production in Complex Social-Ecological Systems},
author = {Rafael Gonz\'{a}lez-L\'{o}pez and Mario Giampietro},
url = {http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fenvs.2017.00054/full},
doi = {10.3389/fenvs.2017.00054},
issn = {2296-665X},
year = {2017},
date = {2017-08-01},
journal = {Frontiers in Environmental Science},
volume = {5},
pages = {54},
abstract = {textcopyright 2017 Gonz\'{a}lez-L\'{o}pez and Giampietro. We propose and illustrate a multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM) as a tool to bring nexus thinking into practice. MuSIASEM studies the relations over the structural and functional components of social-ecological systems that determine the entanglement of water, energy, and food flows in a complex metabolic pattern. MuSIASEM simultaneously considers various dimensions and multiple scales of analysis and therefore avoids the predicament of quantitative analysis based on reductionism (one dimension and one scale at the time). The different functional elements of society (the parts) are characterized using the concept of "processor," that is, a profile of expected inputs and outputs associated with the expression of a specific function. The processors of the functional elements of the social-ecological system can be either scaled-up to describe the metabolic pattern of the system as a whole, or scaled-down by considering the characteristics of its lower-level parts-i.e., the different processors associated with the structural elements required to express the specific function. An analysis of functional elements provides insight in the socio-economic factors that pose internal constraints on the development of the system. An analysis of structural elements makes it possible to study the compatibility of the system with external constraints (availability of natural resources and ecological services) in spatial terms. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated in relation to an example of the use of charcoal in a rural village of Laos.},
keywords = {Charcoal, Metabolic pattern, MuSIASEM, Relational analysis, Social-ecological system},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
textcopyright 2017 González-López and Giampietro. We propose and illustrate a multi-scale integrated analysis of societal and ecosystem metabolism (MuSIASEM) as a tool to bring nexus thinking into practice. MuSIASEM studies the relations over the structural and functional components of social-ecological systems that determine the entanglement of water, energy, and food flows in a complex metabolic pattern. MuSIASEM simultaneously considers various dimensions and multiple scales of analysis and therefore avoids the predicament of quantitative analysis based on reductionism (one dimension and one scale at the time). The different functional elements of society (the parts) are characterized using the concept of "processor," that is, a profile of expected inputs and outputs associated with the expression of a specific function. The processors of the functional elements of the social-ecological system can be either scaled-up to describe the metabolic pattern of the system as a whole, or scaled-down by considering the characteristics of its lower-level parts-i.e., the different processors associated with the structural elements required to express the specific function. An analysis of functional elements provides insight in the socio-economic factors that pose internal constraints on the development of the system. An analysis of structural elements makes it possible to study the compatibility of the system with external constraints (availability of natural resources and ecological services) in spatial terms. The usefulness of the approach is illustrated in relation to an example of the use of charcoal in a rural village of Laos.
AGAUR Grant ID 2017 SGR 230 / Copyright © 2023